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I don't know how it was for you, but for me, 2020 was a pretty tough year. In a matter of months, I lost everything. My job. My friends. The life I'd spent an entire lifetime building. And the worst part is, it all started going downhill the day I did something I never do.
I asked for help.
Ever since then, it's been one downward spiral after another. I've seen first hand how quickly the fall to rock bottom can be. And I've come to realize how hard it is starting anew, especially in America. The supposed land of freedom and opportunity.
It's been frustrating, to say the least. And the more time passes, the more it feels like I'm losing my voice. Like the opportunity to tell my own story and validate my own existence is slipping away.
That's why I wanted to do something bold and daring.
A lot's changed since Covid. For the first time in my life, I have no job, no money, no insurance, and no real clue how I'm going to support myself. I don't even know how I'd be able to focus on any of that when I have so much to say about the world and the future we're headed to. Writing is the only way I know how to express myself. It's also one of the few marketable skills I have, so in my darkest hour of desperation, I was praying I could make a living off my words, somehow.
I tried starting a blog. That didn't go so well. There's much more to internet success than creating a website and posting a few decent articles. I'm nowhere near equipped to handle the marketing, advertising, or social media aspect that comes with building a brand. So I migrated my endeavors over to Facebook.
Even worse idea. Suffice to say, not that many people are actually interested in reading long, thoughtful articles over there.
Which brings me to Reddit. Truthfully, I'm just hoping to find a platform where I can tell my story, share the knowledge I have, find a way to rebuild myself, and make the world a better place in process. And I suppose I'll start by telling you about the Apocalypse.
I'll be upfront with you. When this idea first came to me, I was mostly looking for a gimmick. A way to promote myself on other parts of the web. But the more I think about the world ending, the more it occurs to me, that's exactly how I feel. From my perspective, it's as if society (and the world in general) is in freefall and it's been that way for a while. A large part of me is genuinely terrified that THIS is as good as humanity is ever going to get, and I feel obligated to say something. I feel as if I have to fight, I have to educate, and I have to keep hope alive for a better tomorrow.
SOMEBODY has to believe society can change. If not, nothing ever will.
So allow me a few moments to convince you that we are in an Apocalypse.
By no means is this an attempt at fear mongering. I simply have legitimate concerns about the future, I know how to write a decent narrative at times, and I was honestly proud of the work I put into this post, even if nobody read it.
Without further ado, . . .
Hello.
From henceforth, my name is Postuleo Jones.
I am writing to you from my top-secret location because we are in the midst of an Apocalypse. If you allow me just a few minutes of your time, I'll gladly explain to you what I mean. By the time we make it to the end of this document, you'll be armed with knowledge and you'll know exactly what you need to do in order to survive "the stupid".
To adequately explain why we are in an Apocalypse, I'd need to start by telling you the story of things I noticed starting in 2008 when Obama won the presidency. I will do that at some point in time, but for the sake of brevity, I'll explain why I'm going to be brief--
If you were to plot out causality and learn how randomness converges to create order, what we commonly refer to as 'cause and effect', you'd inevitably end up with something that looks like a graph. If you were to translate that graph and all of its meaning into a working model, you'd get a theory. There are several theories out there that attempt to describe chaos, but I'm going to use one that I made up, one that I'll expand upon in days to come.
According to this theory, by the time you notice the effect of something, logically you need to assume it's because the cause has already happened. Most of what I'd be doing by recapping 2008 would be highlighting a series of causes. A linear progression of observations. And by the time I got to 2020, I would have spent the past narrative explaining to you why we are in the Apocalypse, NOW--And that's one thing about the Apocalypse. Once you notice it, you need to assume it's because it's started.
Once it's started, you need to assume it will continue (aka it will annihilate you). And once you make that assumption, you need to adjust.
Immediately.
Because there's one thing in life that will always remain true; the Universe WILL NOT WAIT for you.
Now, something you need to know is, adjusting does not involve giving in to humanity's more basic instincts. In every Apocalypse movie/television series you have ever seen, once a causative factor has been identified (usually in the form of zombies [both radioactive and benign]), society almost immediately devolves into chaos and disorder.
As tempting as it is, and as easy as it is to succumb to what will henceforth be known as "the stupid", you must resist the urge. Chaos and anarchy might help you survive an Apocalypse, but it doesn't end one. And considering the nature of the Apocalypse we are in, one that centers firmly around stupidity, the best thing you can do--in fact the only thing you can do if you really want the Apocalypse to end--is be intelligent.
I am going to assume that you are intelligent. And because you are intelligent, I won't waste your time documenting the chain of events that have led us to now. If you have been watching the news or tuned in to the Donald Trump presidency, then you have already witnessed much of the causal stream.
Instead, I'm going to spend my time convincing you of WHEN the effect of "the stupid" became apparent to me. It was right after I told the truth. Because I chose to be honest, I was forced to enter the system. I ended up losing my job, most of my friends, and I contemplated the idea of suicide. I kept reaching out to folks only to discover that no one would help me, and somewhere along the way, I discovered the answer to the Fermi Paradox.
I know why there are no great alien civilizations. I know exactly what the great filter is. Suffice to say, you can boil it down to ignorance, greed, and selfishness. All signs that a lifeform is supremely un-intelligent.
Shortly after realizing the knowledge I'd gained, I set about thinking on how I could share this insight with those around me. And without warning, I get on social media. I tune into the news, and I hear there are reports of an unknown virus making its way through China.
Within weeks, this novel and extremely deadly Coronavirus traveled across the globe, infecting thousands and killing hundreds. . .
There was a movie about this, once.
Contagion.
I never saw it, but when it came out back in 2011, I would have sworn we made a big fuss about understanding the dangers of a biological threat and the need for proactive safety measures. I could have sworn the USA said that if there were a pandemic, it would be a crises because America would use the latest technology, science, and data available to eliminate any threat. I even wanna say there was a bunch of feel good commercials made about it, or at the very least, there was talk about America's perceived "preparedness" on television.
Not just that. There was the movie Rise of the Planet of the Apes staring James Franco. Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the ending, didn't some guy who was infected with a virus get on a plane? Then the movie cut to an animated visual depicting just how quickly the virus went on to infect multiple locations due to air travel?
Point is, the moment there was a new virus and we all gawked instead of realizing it was going to spread, was the moment we all f**ked up.
Thus we entered the Stupidity Apocalypse.
Part of why the virus initially spread so quickly was because it used our nursing homes (filled with our most vulnerable) as kindling. The problems with nursing homes in America are vast, most of them stem from being understaffed and underserved. These are issues we have been aware of but neglected for decades, and I'm almost willing to bet at a certain point, there just wasn't enough staff, attention, nor care available to even assess or notice that our elderly were being attacked.
In fact, much of the pandemic panic didn't really set in until the virus started affecting normal, healthy folk. When the average citizen went, "Oh, shit! I might actually suffer and get pneumonia and possibly die!"
And let's be clear. Covid-19 was devastating because it caused pneumonia and respiratory distress . . . even though Influenza causes pneumonia. Pneumocystis Jirovecii causes pneumonia. Pneumococcal pneumonia causes pneumonia. COPD can lead to pneumonia. So can heart disease, kidney disease, liver disease, vascular disease, and even cancer.
Aspiration of food or other caustic substances can cause pneumonia. So can inhalation of debris (think coal dust from mining or the particulate from factory work).
A whole lot of things can cause pneumonia, and if you were to gather the statistics, you'd see that close to 1 million people (50,000 in the US) die from pneumonia each year. And much of that is likely preventable. Yet, all I could hear at the start of this pandemic was how nobody really cared about the suffering pneumonia caused. Not once did we acknowledge how widespread and ubiquitous the condition actually is. The headlines were all about the poor souls affected by Covid and how serious their health was.
Eventually, we were asked to stay at home, and eventually, we (especially folks within the media) started harassing and making fun of those who violated the early lockdown orders.
But, let's pause to analyze that, for a second.
We live in a culture where most Americans don't have enough savings to handle a life crises and are living paycheck to paycheck. Which sort of implies you have to earn your paycheck. You have to show up for work. Many companies do have an oral policy urging workers to stay home if they are feeling unwell. And considering the massive legal teams some companies hire, I'm sure there is an accompanying written policy buried in a handbook somewhere.
But what do you do when the standard operating procedure is, "if you don't show up for work, you're fired!"?
I've had a job like that. Three absences in a rolling calendar year, regardless of the circumstance, meant you were instantly terminated. And it wasn't that easy to adjust or get access to PPE (personal protective equipment, i.e. face masks) in the beginning.
This doesn't even tackle the issue of the self-employed or the hustler who has to go out and earn their money on a daily basis to make a living.
Next, there's the issue of social distancing and the violation of civic responsibility for those that were seen out in public with no mask. I saw s many touting their masks and sitting all high and mighty on their high horse when the pandemic first started. But not a single soul acknowledge the fact that America waited until a pandemic to make an attempt to be responsible. No one acknowledged that we have a flu season EVERY year.
EVERY YEAR there are literally millions of preventable flu infections, millions of hospital visits, millions of dollars wasted, and thousands of deaths, all outcomes that could have been prevented had Americans bothered to use masks, socially distance, and wash their hands before now. This is a simple practice that other, more developed countries, cultures, and societies have been following for years, and it's likely a huge part of why they've had a better overall handle of this pandemic.
But in America, this conversation, this acknowledgment, this chance to think and do better, never happened. Another opportunity shrouded by the stupid.
We then went through several months of folks blaming the government because others couldn't stay inside. We went through several months of folks blaming the government for the misinformation, although no one was trying all that hard to educate. And we also went through several months talking about how difficult it was for our frontline workers and our first responders.
We showed how overworked our hospitals were, how tired the staff was, and how we were running out of beds. But we never did mention that, even prior to Covid, our hospitals were already scheduled to have an increased occupancy thanks to the season flu.
You know, that things that's totally preventable.
We didn't mention that a good portion of why we are in this mess today is because the healthcare system has neglected to spend the past few years educating the masses.
To this day, there is rampant misinformation about vaccines, about diseases and the cause of sickness, and most people don't seem to have any real grasp of biology, pathology, or pathogenesis. So it's no wonder there was such a hard time getting the public to trust the science when the public lacked the education to even realize they needed to be trusting.
Why is why I find the conversation about vaccines so darn hilarious.
Of course there was no antiviral created to effectively treat Covid. Let's face it. Pharmaceutical companies increasingly spend more of their money on marketing and advertising, trying to get the name of their drug or the idea that it will help into your mind so you will know to look for it and ask your physician to prescribe it.
Yes, these companies do engage in research and development. But if you were to take a look at all the drugs we have and order them based on drug class and category, what you'd likely find is that most drug companies spend most of their efforts studying an already well-known compound (likely one they created). They tweak the drug a bit to produce slightly less side effects that are "statistically significant" without necessarily being beneficial. Or they find a new way to administer the drug or a way to increase its therapeutic length. All changes that allow them to renew their patent and charge a f**K ton of money for the 'new' development.
Not much interest is paid to creating completely new treatments, and I doubt drug companies have the incentive or the expertise for that. Your best bet for truly remarkable, breakthrough science lies with the creative and bright minds of PHd and Masters students who would love to engage in independent, discovery driven research at our universities and colleges. But do to a lack of government grants and the general disinterest in education that has swept the nation (plus higher education's increasing reliance on wealthy benefactors and athletic income), I don't think there's going to be a pill to treat covid anytime soon.
And I have to add this. While I was on Instagram and Facebook, I saw A LOT of memes and messages going around from nurses depicting what it was like being in an ICU hooked up to a ventilator. The consensus was, living with a mask is nothing compared to how you will be treated in the hospital, and I damn near lost my mind.
For starters, before I was drop kicked on my ass onto the outskirts of society, I was a nurse. I worked in a Long Term Acute Care Hospital. If you don't know what that is, it's basically a facility that specializes in treating patient whose condition (either acute, chronic, or both) will necessitate a longer length of stay.
Your average patient in an acute hospital--think any Methodist or Memorial Hermann. Rather, think 'any time you to go the ER', because Emergency Rooms are typically the main access point to hospital care. When you're admitted, assuming your condition warrants is, you become an 'inpatient' in the Acute care setting. The typical length of stay can be anywhere between 2-5 days. After which time, you are discharged.
This does depend on your diagnosis, as in the reason you were admitted. Insurance companies pay a set amount based on your primary diagnosis, and that covers expenses for a set number of days, meaning it is pretty much expected that you will be discharged and tasked with managing your own care. That's exactly why we hand you those discharge packets fill of instructions that most never even bother to read. (And why would you? It's boring, it's uninspired, and mostly, it just tells you a bunch of facts and rationales without actually teaching you anything).
Anyway, let's assume that the reason you were admitted to the hospital is because you had a heart attack. But because of your poor diet, lack of exercise, and noncompliance with your blood pressure medication because you only take it when you feel like your pressure is high . . . Let's assume all of this and let's say that your heart attack was pre-scheduled. Meaning, you were diagnosed with heart failure some odd years ago, you have been getting treated for it, but overtime your body has decompensated. The vascular damage has accumulated. It's mostly remained hidden because the doctor is expensive, you haven't been going to your primary to complain, and thus you weren't referred for a screening exam.
No medical professional was looking to tell you that you were on your way to a massive heart attack. One that would provide inadequate profusion for such a long period of time that it caused irreparable damage to your brain from lack of oxygen.
You aren't getting out of the hospital anytime soon. You might stay in the ICU for a week. Maybe two or three. But when you are stable, you will be transferred to a more appropriate facility, one where you will 'theoretically' be supplied with a sort of built-in therapy service. You might stay at this facility, depending on how well it takes you to improve and what that quality of improvement looks like, anywhere from a few weeks, to a few months, to a few years.
That's the sort of facility I worked at.
We took care of patient with heart failure, strokes, kidney disease, and end stage lung disease, and basically, I know a thing or two about caring for patients on a ventilator.
No. Ventilators are not comfortable. And I don't just mean from a 'having to be on one' perspective. Having a tube down your throat, having a machine force air into your lungs, being hooked onto monitors and hearing beeps and lights and alarms and now knowing which one of those means you're about to suddenly feel like you can't breathe and. . . . None of that is fun.
Then having some air-head nurse come in and look at you like you're panicking, then take her sweet ass time getting a respiratory therapist because she can't be bothered to suction your herself, and waiting for a respiratory therapist to come and slide a plastic catheter down your throat, literally suck the air from your lungs just so you can cough up some mucous before they give you a breathing treatment--All of that when the entire time you might have just been anxious, and a single shot of Ativan or that nurse just paying attention or better yet, staying with you, talking to you, and suctioning you herself when she hear you cough a bit earlier when she was passing her meds, but she was too busy at the time. . .
None of that is fun, but that's the reality I dealt with every time I went to work. If you actually knew what it was like being stuck in the hospital, you'd know that getting well can be a lonely and extremely unpleasant experience. And it's sad to me that here we are, in the middle of a pandemic and previously undiagnosed stupidity Apocalypse, and we are literally using healthcare as a threat in order to get people to stay home.
What the actual F**K?
Anyway, that's how we came to rely on a vaccine.
Folks were arguing because Donald Trump was being too optimistic touting BS medical trials and over-promising on medications. When that didn't pan out, everyone (and I mostly mean everyone on the news and on Capitol Hill) began putting their stock in a vaccine to fix Covid.
The second people started talking about a vaccine, however, my mind was like, "So what? Who's going to take it? And how are you going to convince them?
Watching the political back and forth during the Trump presidency, I witnessed how tribal and polarized the conversations surrounding vaccinations and healthcare have become. It seems like a lot of Republicans didn't really believe the science that vaccines work. Either that, or they think their kid won't get a disease. And if their kid does get sick, as long as they end up being fine, who cares if they pass it on to a more vulnerable population?
I'm speculating on this, but this is the argument I most often see posed by those on the Democratic side.
That said, a lot Democrats don't really believe in vaccines, either. A large portion, aka the vocal minority who talks the most, screams the loudest, and therefore gets the most attention (basically those Democrats who love calling Republicans stupid), assuming they don't use the excuse of not having access to healthcare, they likely get vaccinated. Passively, too. I mean, if you work in certain career fields, your job might even offer free annual immunizations. These careers tend to lean more Democratic. The jobs Republicans typically work might not offer immunizations, so that might be another reason Republicans lean more towards pro choice?
Point is, A LOT of America doesn't actually believe in vaccinations. This is pretty interesting because it has more to do with profound lack of understanding and trust than anything else.
Despite vaccines having data to back their effectiveness, despite the fact that humanity eradicated small pox from the face of the Earth using vaccines, and despite the logic that if you completely rid yourself of a virus by vaccinating everyone and everything against it such that the virus has no natural host and can therefore no longer exist. . .
Despite all of that, the average person doesn't really comprehend the need for a vaccination because hey, even thought we have a flu vaccine and they tell you to get that every year, the flu is still a around.
Actually, wait a minute. How come I have to get the flu vaccine ever year? It must not be effective since all of those other vaccines only need one shot to work. But I'm supposed to get the flu shot EVERY year? Pass!! I heard the flu shot can make you sick, anyway. And what's the point in getting it if I might still get the flu? No, I think I'll wait until they actually know what they are doing with those vaccines. But even then, I've never had the flu. And nobody gets those other diseases anymore unless there's an outbreak. If only those people were more careful, we wouldn't be having all these viruses!
So, I don't really have to do anything. Like, I'm okay with the flu vaccine, and I think everyone should get it if these companies ever figure out what their doing. But if I don't get one, that's fine. Them Republicans though, how dare they! At least I WOULD get vaccinated if I had the chance. But those Republicans making a fuss talking about, "I don't think the government should be able to tell me what to do with my body and with my child!"
Just like they be tryna tell females what they can do with their uterus.
You see?
Either way it goes, everyone has some reason why they don't want to get vaccinated, and that's why American's vaccination rates have been decreasing over time. this wasn't helped when every single morning show was inviting celebrities to spout misinformation about vaccines, linking them to autism a decade ago when that particular wave of stupidity hit.
Or do you not remember?
I mean, seriously. It was on talk shows. Morning shows. Radio. The news. Everywhere! And we were all just laughing and calling people idiots at the time saying how dumb could they be? All the while we saw just how many people were willing to follow just because someone famous told them to. We saw how easily people's opinions could be swayed, and I'm sure the medical community squeaked out a poot just to say all the lies around vaccines stank.
In fact, I knew they did. In regards to the paper linking vaccines to Autism, that study was proven to be flawed, and the medical community went on record saying vaccines were safe and effective. If you go back and look, there might've even been talk about re-enforcing or re-educating the public about vaccine guidelines. But that was it.
A whole lot of stupid has been tossed around since then, and the general population is still incredibly ignorant. As much as I would like to blame the government for this, I'm putting this squarely on the shoulders of healthcare. On every single doctor, nurse, healthcare administrator, or whoever had the opportunity to speak to the media and not once did they think to start a campaign to combat the massive amount of medical unintelligence I just described.
So who cares about a vaccine when I could have told you last year that half the country wouldn't even want to get it?
This has something to do with the cognitive dilemmas I laid out, but it also has to do with plan logistics. I mean, as contagious as the Covid-19 was/is, and as quickly as it was/is mutating, you'd want to make sure that any countermeasures you had were absolute. You'd want to eliminate it, basically. And if you only available weapon was a vaccine, you'd need everyone to theoretically be vaccinated.
In order for that to happen, you know you'd have to make vaccinations mandatory. Even IF the coronavirus was a deadly-flesh-eating-monster-forming-mutant-machine of a virus, people wouldn't voluntarily get a vaccine because people are hard-headed, and it's obvious if you've been paying attention to society. At one point, I even saw a news headline saying only 30% of Americans said they would get the vaccine when it became commercially available.
That should have woken everyone up. But it didn't. This is exactly why the government, the medical profession, and the media should have done more to actually educate folks about the science. And I’m literally talking about the science. Like, have an animated model and a YouTube professor or someone talking about the chemistry, how the molecules in the body interact, and how every little component in a vaccine comes together in order to produce a freaking vaccine that works.
Had any of that been done at the start of Corona, we might not be as far behind as we are now.
So yeah, our only hope for getting back to normal is with a vaccine that nobody wants to take. And now that it's out and I’ve had a chance to peek at the science, and I’m honestly impressed. Mostly because it is a new technology. But we are still having problems with the roll out.
I know everyone was blaming that on the in-effective Trump government. But A) government is made up of much, much more than just one person, and B) one of the first things that pissed me off about the government (and all of America for that matter) is the fact that we even thought we had a chance of resolving this crisis through a vaccinations.
In addition to the lack of trust and the general 'don’t f**kin give it to me' attitude we have surrounding vaccines, no one in government seemed to question how we'd effectively complete such a massive roll out in the first place. I mean, considering how effectively we can produce flu vaccines and yet there is no coordinated effort at mass vaccination. Considering there are preventable diseases all across the world, and a lot of these diseases in countries that would LOVE to have access to a vaccines as part of humanitarian aid.
Considering there has been no real practice and no real giving a damn about how you'd distribute a theoretically mandatory vaccine to literally millions of people in a small enough time frame for it to actually make a difference. . . . These are things you should have been thinking about when COVID first happened. Hell, these are things that should have been in place PRIOR to Covid.
I thought about this in what, May? June? And I was miffed I didn’t hear anybody else asking these questions, nor did I hear anyone offering up answers. And I mean answers in terms of, "Explain to me how the you did all the shit I said you did, and now you’re going to try and convince me that you know what you’re doing, even though you don’t even seem to understand that everything you did is the exact reason why where in this mess . . . "
Ugh, whatever.
It was obvious the vaccines roll-out was going to be a challenge. And I know Biden and Kamala have a “plan” to fix that, but I haven’t heard what the plan is to deal with my following concerns.
First, it concerns me that the CDC is counting on herd immunity to protect is from future Covid infections. I forgot what the exact number is to achieve herd immunity, but I want to say it's when 70% of the population is vaccinated. That’s been great for the CDC, because they’re thinking (and by thinking I mean planning) on only having to vaccinate half of the 70% they need in order to reach immunity.
Why? Well, the CDC said it will only have to do half the work, only have to reach 35% of the population, because the other 35% are just gonna get Covid. Covid comes with -10 breathing, -2 fatigue, and +10% chance of dying, but hey, you get bonus immunity from infections, so it works out.
Basically, America’s current tactic is, let’s hurry up and do half the work so that way we'll know all of the work is complete. ^ _ ^
America! How are you realistically going to achieve herd immunity when that is entirely dependent upon people getting a voluntary vaccine that they might not want to receive? Not just that, but why do you think that’s an achievable goal when we've been struggling to reach herd immunity against the viruses we already have vaccines for? And morbidly, what about the remaining 30%? You need to assume you don’t know who it will be or what sort of factors will influence their decision to be unvaccinated.
Hypothetically, what if the remaining 30%, the ones who are unvaccinated, what if they were all vulnerable? Through some mysterious circumstances, what if it turns out that if they catch Covid, they will get sick and die almost immediately before you ever get the chance to save them. And let’s assume that, for unknown reasons, the remaining 30% somehow find a way to connect each other, to keep the line of infectious transmission going. All of that is a creative metaphorical way of saying, let’s assume that they all just get Covid and expire. That’s a whole lot of people who are potentially at risk, and level of risk should never be a progressive society's goal.
Secondly, and this is going to be a two-parter, let’s say we fix America’s roll-out, and according to the government’s plan, we achieve heard immunity and everything’s back to normal by July. Well, that’s great for America, but some countries are having difficulties gaining access to a vaccine.
I read a news article the other day talking about the trouble South America has been having getting the vaccine. Fortunately for them, Russia has been able to provide some assistance. The Russian vaccine isn’t recommended by the CDC or the WHO or something like that, likely because Russia was being secret about their data. But Russia isn’t stupid. If you think Russia tampers with its data, that’s great because it means Russia doesn’t have to do anything but actually create an effective vaccine, and you did all the hard work of spying on your on un-intelligence about it.
I honestly don’t know if Russia’s vaccine is effective, or if it will be as effective as the vaccines America manufactures. But that really doesn’t matter. As long as it prevents Covid from spreading in Latin America, those countries are going to remember who helped them in the middle of a pandemic.
Russia has already achieved its goal of exerting power on the global stage, and to be frank, they didn’t really have to try all that hard. Not just that, but there’s more opportunity in it for them. Africa is another one of those places that's having trouble getting access to vaccines. I was reading another article literally today, and parts of Africa might not have access to a vaccine till 2022 or 2023. How much you wanna bet Russia knows this? How much you wanna bet Russia is going to help Africa with its supply problem? That’d be the first thing I’d do if I was an evil, mustache wearing, mustache twirling dictator who could only do things for the lolz.
And that’s what leads us down to point two. Part of what made Covid so tricky in the first place was just how quickly it was mutating, and it still is mutating. There are newer, deadlier strains cropping up in Africa, and you don’t know how many new strains will appear, what sort of mutations they will have, and how deadly the virus will become before you can get enough vaccines to halt its course.
That being said, so far our vaccines test out to be effective against a couple of different strains of the virus. But what happens when there’s a strain that the vaccine doesn’t grant immunity to? As long as it exists, it will inevitably spread. And if I have to remind you of why, go back and read the two movie titles I listed, and start reading this entire post again from there because obviously haven't been following with me.
If a new, resistant strain were to come over here to America, and we'd be right back in the same position . . . maybe. That’s another point of contention I have.
What does the CDC think is normal? What does anyone in government think is normal? I’m thinking of total eradication of the virus, but as it stands right now, I wouldn’t be surprised if Covid just stuck around as part of our seasonal “flu” package. If that’s the case, it might not be so bad. The flu only kills what, thousands of people EACH year. Add a few thousand more deaths from Covid, and overtime, as long as we’re not in a pandemic anymore, who cares? (I do, because that means we’re still in the stupidity Apocalypse)
So let’s say Covid just sticks around and comes back every year. That’s all well and good until it mutates. And it will mutate into something that is likely extremely infectious and extremely deadly (because every time a virus mutates against a current vaccine, that’s what happens. That’s pretty much the only direction it can mutate in).
When that happens, depending on how infectious Covid ends up being, how lacks we’ve become with our ‘herd immunity’, and how much of a cluster f**k our response time ends up being, you’d be looking at a MASSIVE pandemic. Like, instantaneously MASSIVE. Because you won’t be expecting a thing, and the public will have gotten so used to Covid, there might not be enough fear to immediately modify behavior.
And this sort of failure and inability to respond to an infectious agent scares me because, look at how much fuss we kicked up about this virus being new. About it being novel.
Back when this first came, scientist new absolutely nothing about it . . . although they could tell you what it was called, what it looked like, what family of viral particle it was in, etc. Look at how the world responded to Covid, something that was previously ‘unknown’.
Problem is, there are actually viruses, bacteria, fungi, and other pathological agents out there that are genuinely unknown. Here’s the thing. There is region of our globe near the poles that remains cold year round. In that cold, frigid climate, there are patches of eco system that contain something called permafrost.
Permafrost is called that because the natural environmental conditions come together to make sure the ground remains permanently frozen.
For millions of years, life has been crawling all around the permafrost and just being life until one day, it up and dies. Not necessarily because it was hunted. Not even because it was wounded. It just died because it got an infection. And there it laid, on the cold, hard ground with its germs. And the ground was like, “Shit, baby you hot! Let me go on ahead a freeze you!”
And the ground does this. Really fast. Such to the point that, some things inside that dead body (like those organism causing the infection) don’t even have time to realize their dead. They flash freeze. Either that, or there’s just enough time for some crafty bacteria to make endospores. You can think of endospores as seeds. Bacterial seeds that are hella resistant to environmental changes. And just like a seed, an endospore will wait until conditions are right. Then it will bloom.
The conditions are right when humans get so greedy and stupid, they heat up the climate, start melting millions of years of permafrost, some lonely carcass gets unfrozen and accidentally discovered by some animal or some human. That bacteria that didn’t know it was dead comes back to life, and guess what? It has no competition.
It has no competition because that bacteria was frozen 2 million years ago. No one needed to develop an immune response to it, so as far as it's concerned, every single last one of you is fresh meat. And you will truly not know a thing about it until its already infected you and spread.
Talk about antibiotic resistance. Good luck trying to save people when you don’t know how to detect it, you don't know what kills it, and you don't know how it's transmitted or it's disease progression. I bring this up because it's one of the lesser known threats posed by climate change. I bring this up because last I checked, our scientists had already warned us that if we didn't change our behavior soon, we were going to cause positive feedback loop, and there'd be nothing we could do to stop it.
You might have more hope for the future than I do. Then again, I haven't talking about the economic impact of Covid. I haven't talked about the mental health crises it sparked. I haven't talked about the shocking number of students who failed to thrive with the switch to online learning, and I haven't talked about lingering ghosts of racism or the insurrection on the Capitol.
I've left so much out of this conversation, yet it's still long and I still have the nerve to call it an introduction.
It's hard to believe we might be facing the end of the world. Not when our society looks like this . . .? (This is the part where you look around ominously, and suddenly you realized it's ominous)
But unfortunately, all of the problems I can see really are baked into the cake of how we think about society and how we participate in our civilization. And as hopeful as people are for the future, no one seems to really believe that society can change.
So if you'll allow me, that's what I want to talk about with this story.
Life. How I learned to appreciate it so fiercely, and why I'm fighting to make it better.
Or at the very least, why I'm fighting to be heard and have my experiences acknowledged.

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“Dude, your family is in a fucking cult,” my friend Todd said to me. It took me by surprise and I tried to pause my game, then realized it was online and I couldn’t. My character died a moment later, I was so stunned by what he had said I was no longer paying attention.
“What are you talking about,” I asked him, passing him the game controller. We were playing a battle royale game and he was terrible at it, so I knew he would die and it would be my turn again soon. It was late at night and we were sitting in my basement on old couches – a spring poked into my back and foam material poked out of holes in the coffee-stained armrests. My parents were asleep upstairs, so I wasn’t really worried about them overhearing. Still I kept my voice down.
“You didn’t think there was anything weird about that church service today,” he asked, tapping the controller against his knee. He sat up straight and held the controller more tightly, focused on lasting more than two minutes in the game this time.
“Land on the outskirts,” I said. “You’re gonna die immediately if you try to land in one of the popular spots.”
He waited for a while before dropping into the game, and I thought he might do a bit better this time.
“That church pastor, man, he’s fucking weird. And what were they saying about a thirty day fast? Won’t they die if none of them eat for thirty days? Your mom and dad are really gonna do that?”
Todd had been forced to accompany us to church, since that was a condition of the sleep-over. I had moved to Brantville with my family a couple years before and Todd was my best friend from my old hometown. He came over once in a while but less and less frequently these days. As much as I had promised myself I wouldn’t let it happen, I was losing touch with my old friends.
I was hanging out with people I had met at school a lot more lately. It had taken me two full years to finally make some friends. I know, that’s a long time, tell me about it. My other friends from Langcaster hardly spoke to me anymore – Todd was the only one I still saw – we had been best friends.
“It’s a juice fast. Yeah I know it’s really weird. They’re gonna have broth and soup and stuff too I guess, but still. No solid food for a month. I really don’t get it. I’m just glad I don’t have to do it.” I think my parents were worried about having children’s aide called on them. They said I needed my energy for schoolwork and extracurricular activities.
“Everybody in that place is so mesmerized by that pastor too, it’s freaky, man.” I hadn’t noticed it before but I was really accustomed to it. From an outsider’s perspective I guessed it had been a bit strange. The church had grown over the last couple years and now had a couple hundred members. When we had first started going it was only a dozen or so of us. We had upgraded to newer and bigger buildings along the way.
The people in the church respected the charismatic pastor, Steve, so much they fawned over him constantly, and revered him. They regarded him from their pews silently, respectfully, and with glowing admiration. Now there were a couple hundred people competing for his attention, and with increasing fervor. If someone even so much as coughed during one of his sermons they were shushed from six different directions and given glares from dozens of reprimanding eyes.
The latest iteration of the church had been a huge transformation. A lot of the parishioners were involved in construction trades so it had been decided a new church would be built on the pastor’s land. He lived on a big farm and there were many acres of land there. Talk had begun about building houses on the land too, where parishioners could move if they so wished – to form a little community. My parents were excited about the prospect and I was more than a bit annoyed they were talking about moving again. I had just begun to make friends in the city and now they wanted to move out to the country to live on a subdivided farm owned by the church pastor! I was only sixteen though, so what could I really do other than voice my protests and be ignored.
“Yeah I know it’s kinda weird,” I said, a bit self-consciously.
“Kinda weird? Man, it’s fuckin’ bananas in that place. People speaking in tongues and casting demons out of gay people – that guy rolling around on the floor, screaming. What kinda weird shit is that anyways?” The more I thought about it, the more embarrassed I became. It was a crazy scene in there. It was a good thing he hadn’t come on rattlesnake day, two weekends ago, I thought.
I doubted Todd would sleep over on a Saturday again. I took a sip from the sickly-sweet lemon vodka cooler we had gotten my brother to buy us. Todd wasn’t a fan of beer.
“Well, I don’t know what to do. They said I don’t have to go anymore when I turn eighteen, so it’s only another year and a half. What’s the worst that can happen?”
“Just don’t drink the fucking Kool-aide, man. That’s all I’m saying.” He gave me a serious look and I nodded. It was good advice, and I vowed to follow it.
*
Ten months later I was on the back of a large wagon, hauling bundles of hay and stacking them in neat piles. There was a lot of work to be done in the communal fields. My mom’s hair was in disarray and she had dark circles under her eyes, but her grin was wide and manic. She had sweat stains all over the front of her shirt and under her arms. No doubt I looked the same, minus the smile.
The church pastor, Steve, was up front on the tractor. He was driving the tractor which pulled the hay-wagon, wearing sunglasses and a ball cap. I noticed his white T-shirt looked clean and dry. He had soundproof headphones on to block out the noise from the tractor and a little fan was blowing into his face. He looked back at us once in a while and yelled directions while we swatted at horse flies, sweating and grunting and pulling bales of hay up from the ground. The friendly smile never left his face, and everyone followed his commands without question.
This was day three of our collective effort to bundle hay for the property so that it could be used to feed the livestock. There had been lots of projects like this lately, and I was always voluntold to help. I barely had time for homework anymore. But there was talk of a homeschooling program starting soon, with all the kids from church to be taught by Steve, the pastor. He had a diploma from a teacher’s college so it was only a matter of sorting out the legal paperwork. By next September we would all be his students, and not just on Sundays.
A horse fly took a big chunk out of the back of my leg, behind my knee, and I yelped and swatted it. I lifted my hand and saw a large pool of blood and a squished bug body. One of the pastor’s kids, David, saw me and gave me a stern look, furrowing his brow. He wagged his finger at me and told me I shouldn’t kill living things, and said he was going to tell his dad.
Oh great, I thought to myself. Any time I did anything within eyesight of his four kids lately I was sure to hear about it later, even if it was innocent and I had done nothing wrong. Ironically, they were all hell-raisers who did nothing but stir up shit and cause trouble.
My friend Todd refused to come over anymore since we had moved to the communal farm. He had gotten into a fight with the pastor’s son, David, who was about our age. The fight had started because David had thrown a rock at Todd’s head, leaving a large goose egg and a laceration. Somehow, Todd had been blamed, according to my parents and the pastor, who had been quite angry with him for some reason. David had ended up unscathed, since he was a foot taller than Todd and had beat him up handily when it had come to blows.
I visited Todd at his house now, infrequently. My parents refused to drive me there so it was tough to find a way over. Most days I ended up stranded on the communal farm and as such was forced to help with the never-ending labour. Our house was still being built, so we lived in a large building with several other families and absolutely no privacy. It was a teenager’s worst nightmare.
The wagon was full and I was told to stay behind and wait for them to come back. My brother and I stayed behind and were told to get things ready for the next wagonload. Basically that meant we would be standing around doing nothing, since the hay bales were already tied up and ready to go. I looked at my brother Richard with a confused expression. He was a year older so was almost free of this insanity. He said he was going to move out of the commune on his 18th birthday.
We watched the wagon drive off and sat around for a while, complaining and swatting at flies and mosquitoes. We were both drenched in sweat and couldn’t wait to be finished for the day. We usually worked until dinner but today had gone back out afterwards to work until the sun went down. The expectations on us seemed to be getting greater and greater every day.
There was only time for one more wagonload, I realized. The sun would be setting soon. The bugs were becoming more and more ferocious and I wished I had brought a bottle of bug spray.
“What the hell is that?” My brother jumped backwards and I saw his eyes were wide and terrified. He was pointing into the woods. I followed his gaze and looked where he was pointing. I saw what looked to be a wolf, sitting in the shadows off the edge of the field.
“It’s a wolf, I think,” I said, my voice trembling. I saw movement to the right and looked to see bushes swaying back from being disturbed as if something had just gone past them. I looked around, suddenly terrified.
“There’s more of them,” my brother said in a whisper. I saw them now too. There were a few more of them, dotted around us at odd angles, like a hunting party. But wolves don’t usually hunt people, do they, I thought. Something was strange about the wolves too. I looked closer but it was hard to see in the gathering darkness. It was their bodies that didn’t look right. The fur was wrong, patchy and ill-fitting. I realized with alarm that these were not wolves – these were people in wolf clothing.
The wolf faces were actually masks. I whispered this to Richard and he nodded his head, saying he had just noticed the same thing. I said we should run. He agreed.
We got up from where we stood and bolted back towards the road. We took a logical shortcut through a patch of trees by the road and that was our mistake – they had predicted it.
I felt the world turn sickeningly upside-down and it took me a moment to realize I was ensnared in a trap. Everything was spinning and I saw I was hanging in a cargo net that swung from a high branch on a tall tree. It was like a trap from an episode of Scooby-Doo – how embarrassing.
I saw that Richard had gotten past the trap somehow and was running back towards the commune. Hopefully he can get back there and call the police, I thought. I screamed after him, telling him to get help. He looked back over his shoulder and kept running, a terrified look on his face.
Panic turned to dread when I saw him fall through the façade of leaves covering the pit. He disappeared from view and I heard him howling in pain a moment later. They had set two traps for us, it seemed, maybe more.
“See, Jayson, this is why you need to remember not to be a sheep.” The familiar voice of Steve, the pastor, called up to me. He lifted up his wolf mask for just a second, revealing his always-present smile. Then he replaced the mask. His sermon last week had been all about not following bad examples set by people – even if we respected those people. Richard and I had looked at each other, giggling in our pews. I had looked back up at the altar and seen Steve staring at me, his sermon paused. I had looked around the church and seen the whole congregation had been staring at me, like a bad dream.
A dozen others crowded around him now, all in grey fur and wearing wolf masks. They stared at me through the holes in the masks, and I realized they were the actual faces of wolves, that had been cut off and turned into face-coverings. They regarded me through the masks and it was surreal and horrifying at the same time. I recognized my mother’s eyes through one of the masks, at least I’m pretty sure it was her. She had to have known, at least.
I was breathing fast and heavy, trying to make sense of the situation. In the background I heard my brother yelping and wailing, saying something about the bone, how the bone was sticking through the skin. It was hard to hear him from the bottom of that hole. Eventually he stopped screaming – no one went to check on him.
“He was a lost cause. He had no plans of staying after his 18th birthday, did he, Jayson?” Steve’s voice was clear and remorseless. He waited for me to answer, saying nothing. I nodded my head. I was beginning to think they had no intention of helping him out of that pit.
Much to my dismay, several of the wolf parishioners walked over to the hole, pulled shovels out from under piles of leaves, and began to cover the pit with dirt. Richard didn’t make a sound from down where he lay, at the bottom of the hole.
“You have two choices. That’s the way I see it, Jayson. You can be a wolf. Or you can be a sheep. Which one do you want to be?” He looked up at me, holding a furry grey costume and a wolf mask that had materialized out of nowhere, it seemed.
I realized at that moment, this wasn’t a human being I was looking at. This was something else entirely. There wasn’t any clear reason why I should think that, but looking back on it I don’t doubt it for a second. That man in the wolf mask, surrounded by his disciples, he was too convincing, too charismatic and charming. He made me want to do it, but only for a second.
“Alright, alright. I’ll be a wolf. Just please, let me down.” The ropes were cutting into me painfully and it felt like I couldn’t breathe, the way I was tangled and compressed in the net.
Steve made a motion with his hands and I dropped down to the ground. They untied the ropes and I stood up slowly from the net. It was good to be back on solid ground and I let my mind adjust to it for a second before what I was about to do.
He handed the wolf clothing and mask to me, and I took it.
I looked around at them all and said, “Give me a minute, I’m gonna go change.” I walked towards a big tree, pretending I was going behind it for a bit of privacy. When I got there I stepped behind it and threw the disgusting hairy garment to the pine needle strewn forest floor. I began to run. Not towards the commune, but towards the highway.
They weren’t expecting this, I realized. It had been the dumbest and most impulsive escape plan ever, but it was working. I kept pumping my legs and running, jumping over stumps and fallen trees. The darkness was making it harder to see, but that could also work to my advantage, I realized.
I didn’t even risk a look behind me, just continued running until I reached a clearing. I ran into the open field and something whizzed past my ear. I felt a sharp pain there a moment later and reached up with my hand. It came away covered in blood.
I looked behind me and saw a wolf-man with a compound bow raised and an arrow pointed in my direction. I immediately realized it was David, the pastor’s son who had beat up my friend. He was an expert with a bow, and went hunting all the time. They were always talking about it but I never participated. Now I realized what they were hunting all these past months. The bratty, spoiled little smile he always wore now seemed even more terrifying, now that I knew the trophies he’d been bragging about were really human beings. I was suddenly very glad I had turned down the offers for play-dates our parents had attempted to implement. I shuddered to think what a play-date would be like for such a creature – knowing what he was the offspring of.
As if on cue, Steve the pastor walked up beside him with his own bow raised. They let their arrows fly simultaneously and one hit me square in the shoulder, the other caught the side of my neck, grazing it.
I looked down in horror at the arrow which protruded from my shoulder, just above my clavicle. It looked like it had gone straight through without hitting a bone, at least. I kept running despite my injuries, although my pace slowed as I began to feel faint and tired from blood loss.
The darkness had finally settled upon the forest and it was impossible to see into the distance. I realized with a wave of relief that I might get away, that the moonless night might aide my escape. I tried not to get too excited as I felt the blood squishing in my shoes like I had been walking through puddles on a rainy day. It dawned on me that no one would want to pick up a blood-soaked man standing at the side of the road with his thumb held out trying to look harmless. If I ran out into the road and waved my arms that would probably be a safer bet.
The highway came into view suddenly as I came out of a thick patch of shrubbery. A pair of headlights came over a rise in the distance and I saw them coming towards me. I ran in that direction, my heart hammering in my chest, full of fear and hope and adrenaline.
When the car was close enough I ran out into the road and began to wave my bloody arms around, screaming, I don’t even know what I was yelling but they stopped.
A pretty girl with glasses and black hair rolled down her window. She appeared to be about my age and her face was unbelieving and full of shock. I jabbered and rambled and begged her to let me in. I pleaded with her, telling her they were hunting me, that they’d killed my brother.
I heard the sound of the automatic doors unlocking and she told me to get in. I ran around to the other side and opened the car door. I closed it behind me as I sat down and put on my seatbelt. Someone was saying to drive, drive, drive, and I realized it was me.
Her tires spun and I heard gravel flying as she hit the gas and we drove away from there, the engine roaring. I saw her hands were gripping the wheel tightly, and she was looking at me anxiously.
“It’s all true. Don’t worry, I’m telling you the truth,” I said. “Look,”
I pointed to the left side of the road and saw that she noticed them too. Several people in wolf fur and masks emerged from the forest holding bows and looking around side to side. She noted them without saying a word and continued driving, in the direction of the driveway to the commune, not towards the city. Not towards safety. I pointed this out to her.
“I know,” she said, and looked at me, smiling a wolfish grin. “I’m very well aware.”

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Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
USC Dornsife	8-30	National	54	39
YouGov	8-29	National	47	41
Morning Consult	8-29	National	50	44
Morning Consult	8-29	National	52	42
USC Dornsife	8-29	National	52	40
Emerson College	8-28	Massachusetts	69	30
Trafalgar Group	8-28	Michigan	45	46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-28	National	48	38
Franklin & Marshall College	8-27	Pennsylvania	49	42
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-26	National	47	38
Ipsos	8-26	National	44	37
Benenson Strategy Group	8-26	National	50	39
Rasmussen Reports	8-26	National	46	45
YouGov	8-26	National	50	41
Roanoke College	8-26	Virginia	53	39
Ipsos	8-26	National	47	40
Change Research	8-26	Wisconsin	49	44
Change Research	8-26	Arizona	49	47
Change Research	8-26	Michigan	50	44
Change Research	8-26	Florida	49	46
Change Research	8-26	National	51	43
Change Research	8-26	North Carolina	48	47
Change Research	8-26	Pennsylvania	49	46
Trafalgar Group	8-25	Wisconsin	45	46
Public Policy Polling	8-25	Delaware	58	37
Public Policy Polling	8-25	New York	63	32
Public Policy Polling	8-25	Florida	48	44
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Léger	8-24	National	49	40
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-24	North Carolina	49	46
Public Policy Polling	8-24	Texas	48	47
Trafalgar Group	8-24	Louisiana	37	54
YouGov	8-24	National	50	39
TargetSmart	8-24	Ohio	47	46
YouGov	8-23	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-22	National	52	43
Morning Consult	8-22	National	51	43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-22	National	49	39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Pennsylvania	48	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Florida	49	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	North Carolina	44	46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Michigan	50	38
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Wisconsin	49	39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Arizona	47	38
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-21	National	46	38
Civiqs	8-21	Wisconsin	51	45
Civiqs	8-21	Pennsylvania	51	44
Civiqs	8-21	Michigan	49	46
Civiqs	8-21	Ohio	47	47
DKC Analytics	8-21	New Jersey	52	33
Saint Anselm College	8-20	New Hampshire	51	43
Muhlenberg College	8-20	Pennsylvania	49	45
Global Strategy Group	8-20	Texas	47	45
Echelon Insights	8-20	National	51	38
Echelon Insights	8-20	National	53	39
Data for Progress	8-20	National	50	41
Morning Consult	8-20	National	47	36
Morning Consult	8-20	National	49	39
Trafalgar Group	8-19	Minnesota	46	46
Ipsos	8-19	National	48	40
Ipsos	8-19	National	45	36
ALG Research	8-19	Louisiana	43	50
Rasmussen Reports	8-19	National	48	44
YouGov	8-19	National	50	40
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-18	National	45	39
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Wisconsin	47	47
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Florida	49	49
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Pennsylvania	50	46
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Arizona	48	51
GQR Research (GQRR)	8-18	Michigan	52	43
Léger	8-17	National	51	35
Morning Consult	8-17	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-17	Wisconsin	49	43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-17	National	48	40
Landmark Communications	8-17	Georgia	44	47
YouGov	8-17	National	49	38
YouGov	8-17	National	50	41
YouGov	8-17	Texas	40	47
ABC News	8-17	National	54	44
ABC News	8-17	National	53	41
ABC News	8-17	National	53	41
SSRS	8-16	National	50	46
YouGov	8-16	National	52	42
East Carolina University	8-16	North Carolina	46	46
NBC News	8-16	National	50	41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

• Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
• Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
• Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
• Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
• RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
• Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

• FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
• Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
• JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
• The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
• Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
• Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
• Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

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Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
YouGov	8-9	Pennsylvania	49	43
YouGov	8-9	Wisconsin	48	42
Global Strategy Group	8-7	National	49	45
Zogby Interactive	8-7	National	46	46
Zogby Interactive	8-7	National	46	46
Zogby Interactive	8-7	National	46	45
Trafalgar Group	8-7	Texas	43	49
Public Policy Polling	8-7	Kansas	43	50
Research Co.	8-7	National	48	38
EPIC-MRA	8-7	Michigan	51	40
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-5	National	43	40
RMG Research	8-6	Iowa	40	41
Quinnipiac University	8-6	South Carolina	42	47
Quinnipiac University	8-6	Maine CD-1	61	30
Quinnipiac University	8-6	Maine CD-2	44	45
Quinnipiac University	8-6	Kentucky	41	50
Quinnipiac University	8-6	Maine	52	37
David Binder Research	8-6	Michigan	51	41
David Binder Research	8-6	Wisconsin	53	42
David Binder Research	8-6	Minnesota	54	36
David Binder Research	8-6	Iowa	49	43
DFM Research	8-6	Oklahoma	36	56
Data for Progress	8-6	Maine	53	43
Data for Progress	8-6	Iowa	45	46
Data for Progress	8-6	Maine	49	42
Data for Progress	8-6	North Carolina	49	45
Data for Progress	8-6	North Carolina	46	44
Data for Progress	8-6	Iowa	42	44
Data for Progress	8-6	Arizona	47	44
Data for Progress	8-6	Arizona	45	43
Bluegrass Voters Coalition	8-5	Kentucky	34	55
Morning Consult	8-5	Indiana	38	55
Bluegrass Voters Coalition	8-5	Kentucky	45	52
Ipsos	8-5	National	54	45
Ipsos	8-5	National	56	44
Marquette University Law School	8-5	Wisconsin	52	44
Marquette University Law School	8-5	Wisconsin	49	45
Rasmussen Reports	8-5	National	48	45
Monmouth University	8-5	Iowa	46	48
Monmouth University	8-5	Iowa	45	48
Monmouth University	8-5	Iowa	47	47
YouGov	8-5	National	49	40
Zogby Interactive	8-5	North Carolina	44	40
Zogby Interactive	8-5	Florida	43	43
Zogby Interactive	8-5	Ohio	43	41
Zogby Interactive	8-5	Pennsylvania	44	43
MRG Research	8-5	Hawaii	56	29
Hodas & Associates	8-5	Wisconsin	52	37
Hodas & Associates	8-5	Michigan	52	40
Hodas & Associates	8-5	Pennsylvania	50	44
University of California, Berkeley	8-4	California	67	28
Morning Consult	8-4	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-4	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-4	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-4	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-4	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-4	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-4	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-4	Texas	47	46
Morning Consult	8-4	South Carolina	44	49
Morning Consult	8-4	Kentucky	35	59
Morning Consult	8-4	Alabama	36	58
Fox News	8-3	National	48	41
Public Policy Polling	8-3	Michigan	49	43
Global Strategy Group	8-3	Wisconsin	51	42
Emerson College	8-3	Montana	45	54
Center for Marketing and Opinion Research	8-3	Ohio	45	41
YouGov	8-2	Georgia	46	45
YouGov	8-2	North Carolina	48	44
Emerson College	7-31	National	53	46
YouGov	7-31	National	49	40
Data for Progress	7-31	National	51	42
Data for Progress	7-31	National	50	43
Public Policy Polling	7-31	Minnesota	52	42
University of New Hampshire	7-30	New Hampshire	52	39
University of New Hampshire	7-30	New Hampshire	44	46
University of New Hampshire	7-30	New Hampshire	53	40
IBD	7-30	National	48	41
Virginia Commonwealth University	7-30	Virginia	50	39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Wisconsin	45	35
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Michigan	49	37
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Arizona	46	38
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Pennsylvania	48	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	North Carolina	43	42
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Florida	48	41
Franklin & Marshall College	7-30	Pennsylvania	50	41
Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS)	7-30	North Carolina	46	48
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	7-30	Florida	50	46
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-29	National	55	45
Optimus	7-29	National	47	40
Optimus	7-29	National	38	31
TargetPoint	7-29	Michigan	49	33
Rasmussen Reports	7-29	National	48	42
Monmouth University	7-29	Georgia	47	47
Monmouth University	7-29	Georgia	47	48
Monmouth University	7-29	Georgia	46	49
YouGov	7-29	National	49	40
Zogby Interactive	7-29	National	44	40
Ipsos	7-29	National	57	43
Ipsos	7-29	National	57	43
Change Research	7-29	Pennsylvania	48	46
Change Research	7-29	Florida	48	45
Change Research	7-29	National	51	42
Change Research	7-29	Arizona	47	45
Change Research	7-29	Michigan	46	42
Change Research	7-29	Wisconsin	48	43
Change Research	7-29	North Carolina	49	46
SurveyUSA	7-28	Washington	62	28
Morning Consult	7-28	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	7-28	North Carolina	46	49
Morning Consult	7-28	Michigan	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Minnesota	49	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Florida	47	48
Morning Consult	7-28	Ohio	42	50
Morning Consult	7-28	Virginia	52	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Pennsylvania	48	44
Morning Consult	7-28	Texas	43	50
Morning Consult	7-28	Georgia	47	49
Morning Consult	7-28	Colorado	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Arizona	45	47
Colby College	7-28	Maine	50	38
Colby College	7-28	Maine CD-1	55	35
Colby College	7-28	Maine CD-2	45	42
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Montana	45	50
Public Policy Polling	7-28	North Carolina	49	46
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Alaska	44	50
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Maine	53	42
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Georgia	46	45
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Colorado	54	41
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Iowa	47	48
DKC Analytics	7-28	New Jersey	51	33
MassINC Polling Group	7-28	Massachusetts	55	23
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	43
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	43
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	43
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	48	44
Morning Consult	7-28	National	49	44
Morning Consult	7-28	National	49	43
Morning Consult	7-28	Minnesota	47	44
Morning Consult	7-28	Texas	47	45
Morning Consult	7-28	Michigan	52	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Georgia	47	46
Morning Consult	7-28	North Carolina	47	47
Morning Consult	7-28	Ohio	45	48
Morning Consult	7-28	Pennsylvania	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Virginia	52	41
Morning Consult	7-28	Florida	49	46
Morning Consult	7-28	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	7-28	Colorado	52	39
Morning Consult	7-28	Arizona	49	42
ALG Research	7-27	South Carolina	45	50
Trafalgar Group	7-27	Minnesota	49	44
brilliant corners Research & Strategies	7-27	South Carolina	43	50
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-27	National	55	45
Kaiser Family Foundation	7-27	National	47	38
Marist College	7-27	North Carolina	51	44
AP-NORC	7-27	National	46	34
YouGov	7-26	National	51	41
YouGov	7-26	Michigan	48	42
YouGov	7-26	Ohio	45	46
Marist College	7-26	Arizona	50	45
SSRS	7-26	Michigan	52	40
SSRS	7-26	Arizona	49	45
SSRS	7-26	Florida	51	46
Gravis Marketing	7-25	Pennsylvania	48	45
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	52	43
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	51	41
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	49	40
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	53	38
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	50	37
Gravis Marketing	7-24	Michigan	51	42
Gravis Marketing	7-24	Wisconsin	50	42
Data for Progress	7-24	National	49	43
Data for Progress	7-24	National	49	43
Fox News	7-23	Michigan	49	40
Fox News	7-23	Minnesota	51	38
Fox News	7-23	Pennsylvania	50	39
Global Strategy Group	7-23	National	50	39
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	7-23	National	51	43
GQR Research (GQRR)	7-23	National	55	44

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

• Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
  
• Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
  
• Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
  
• Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
  
• RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
  
• Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO
  

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

• FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet (though Nate's been sharing some results from it, so it may be coming out soon^TM ), but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
  
• Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
  
• JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
  
• The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
  
• Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
  
• Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
  
• Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
  

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.