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READ THIS if you expected a huge gamma squeeze today after close above $320
OG poster
u/PlayFree_Bird
Alright, I hate to say it, but there is some less-than-ideal information circulating out there, particularly about the famed "gamma squeeze" we hear so much about these days. I'll get to that. Let's go through the questions you simpletons want to know, as explained by a mouth-breathing fool who has managed to convince you he knows what he's talking about:
Did we win today? Is it endgame?
Kind of. Be patient.
In what ways did we win?
First, there was the obvious victory of bouncing back 65% today after the worst market manipulation I've ever witnessed. We kept the upward momentum going.
Secondly, every day you finish higher is another day the shorts are underwater. If you are perpetually going up, the walls are closing in on them.
Finally, a lot of put options expired worthless today while a number of call options expired in-the-money. It's always good to make put holders lose money because you drain the bank accounts of people betting against you.
Yes! Call options! We finished above $320 and get a gamma squeeze to infinity now, right?
No. That's not how this works. Too many people don't quite understand what a gamma squeeze is.
A gamma squeeze happens when call option sellers (or "writers") have to hedge their naked calls by buying stocks. They do this because the risk of selling naked calls is theoretically infinite if they don't. It's called delta hedging. You don't need to know all the fancy math ("delta" and "gamma" are those greek symbols for nerds), just understand this: as it becomes more probable that the call option you sold will cost you money, you hedge more.
This is a continuous PROCESS, not a discreet moment in time. The market makers and hedge funds and institutions selling you calls don't wake up on Friday morning and think, "Shit! I think I'm going to lose everything if these stocks keep going up! I have to BUY NOW!!!" That would be stupid. They are hedging all the way up. I guarantee you that most of the calls that were exercised at $320 today were already covered. They already went out and bought those shares and most of the upwards pressure that places on the market is priced in already.
So, no gamma squeeze?
Probably not significantly. They're not going to be madly rushing out on Monday to buy shit they already own for the most part.
Why are people talking about a gamma squeeze at $320, then?
We did have a gamma squeeze at $320. On Wednesday, two days ago. The price exceeded $320 (then the highest strike price on the books) and promptly surged to $371 before coming back down to around $320. That's what a gamma squeeze is: a frenzied rush by call sellers to cover calls.
It typically happens BEFORE expiration, not after. It's rare for market makers to get so caught with their pants down that they have to get squeezed for the previous week's calls on a Monday. I don't know where this idea of a gamma squeeze now at $320 is coming from.
This hurts my feelings. So, what's so great about the $320 threshold, anyway? Did it matter at all?
It's still a good thing. There may have been a few lingering naked calls to cover. And, like I said, it's always good to make put-holders lose money because stick it to the 🌈🐻, that's why.
$320 was a significant level because there were quite a few open call options at that strike. You can see the entire option chain here:
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/option-chain Go through and count up all the January 29th options that were in-the-money at today's close. I think maybe 90,000 or something? Screw it, I didn't count. Somebody who can figure out how to use a calculator can add those up. Multiply that number by 100 (because option contracts are sold in groups of 100) and that's how many shares need to change hands thanks to contracts expiring ITM.
It may be that with so many shares needing to change hands and so little liquidity in this market, some weird things could happen.
What weird things?
Well, if nothing else, a lot of shares will need to be tied up as the process of settling calls plays out.
You have to remember that when somebody says they own shares, they don't necessarily
own own the shares right at that moment.
When you press "buy" on your phone and it says your order was filled, that doesn't mean that the process happens instantaneously. For all intents and purposes as far as you are concerned, sure, the process looks instant. However, there's a lot of messy stuff that happens on the back-end of the system between the brokers and the clearing houses. The clearing houses are where the daily tab gets settled: who owes whom and what they owe and at what price, etc.
Monday could be interesting as this tab for millions of stocks (in a market with only 50-something million shares actively circulating) gets settled. It might not be crazy, but it could. We'll see.
Michael Burry (Christian Bale, for all you noobs) seems to think that all the naked short-selling above the float will result in a shit-storm when people actually go to get their shares back:
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1355221824661983233 Liquidity crunch + lots of shares being moved around + nobody knows where they all are currently = potential nightmare for Wall Street.
I just want my infinite short squeeze and my tendies, so how do we get the MOASS?
Something needs to be the catalyst. Something needs to get the short sellers really underwater, so much so that they are drowning. That's why there's been so much hype about gamma squeezes; the gamma and short squeezes are two separate things, but the gamma squeezing has been really good to us lately. It has triggered some crazy upwards price movements. I still think one was about to happen yesterday morning that would have triggered the squeeze-pocalypse, the Mother of All Short Squeezes. The bastards at the brokerages (acting with and for the clearing houses), took your tendies. It's criminal what played out.
I actually think a gamma squeeze was possible today, as well, as the price shot up to $378 around noon. If it had gotten to $400, it stood a very good chance of running up to $500, which would have caused a run up to $650 and beyond. Then Robinhood said, "Oh, actually, you plebs cannot buy 5 shares anymore, only 2 now." The price came back down again.
Oddly enough, the S&P500 sold off over a full percentage point (that's a lot of money) right after GME hit that $378 peak. Do you think this doesn't freak the finance world out? They know a gamma squeeze is like the fuse on a firework. It consumes itself until it ignites the rocket.
How will Wall Street defend themselves?
They will try to keep snipping the fuse. That's what all these restrictions on brokerages are about. They are trying to defuse the situation slowly because having it all get sorted out quickly and frantically is no good for them.
We need enough upwards price momentum that those option chains keep going up and up and feeding on themselves. They need to become a self-sustaining chain reaction, fed by hedging pressure. And you need to put pressure on your elected representatives to tell them that Wall Street cannot be allowed to just shut down the game when they are losing. I hate to tell you this, but the squeeze has so far been stopped purely by the losers declaring that it will not happen at any cost. It's bullshit. Eat the rich. But there it is.
Do you feel you've used the word "squeeze" too much by now?
Yes. I've been writing and looking at the word "squeeze" so much that it is starting to lose its meaning. Squeeze. Squeeze. Squeeeeeeze.
EDIT:
TL;DR Shares most likely already bought so no gamma squeeze, doesn't matter anyway 🙌💎🚀 🙌💎🚀 🙌💎🚀
EDIT 2:
STOP THANKING ME FOR THIS POST, RETARDS! Literally the first sentence is me giving credit to the original poster, THANK HIM.
GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread
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Gamestop Big Picture: Theory, Strategy, Reality
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low, and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. Before I get into Monday's action, a couple of things:
I wanted to first give a shout out to
piddlesthethug for capturing
this screenshot, which shows that moment in time I referenced in my
third Gamestop post, where some poor soul got sniped while sweeping the 29 January 115 calls. I added it into the post with an edit, but my guess is most who read the post a while back would have missed it. I guess my mental math in the moment was off as you can see from the image that the cost was actually just shy of $500k rather than $440k as I wrote in the post. Brutal.
People have also asked me where I stand on this trade. I was lucky to get in early, trade some momentum, and retain a sizeable core holding (relative to my play account). As I've mentioned some comments, my core holding, which I will hold until this saga plays itself out, would buy me a new car, all cash. Though after today I'd have to downgrade from a lower end Lexus to a Corolla lol.
Alright, so, today's action.
I have to admit that I was just glancing at the chart between writing emails, working on excel spreadsheets, conference calls, and meetings. Whenever I could, I was listening to CNBC in the background, and taking a closer look whenever I heard anything that might move sentiment, or theoretically telegraph an attack as had happened so many times last week.
In my opinion the price action played out almost by-the-numbers according to a squeeze campaign strategy as I laid out in my previous post. I want to be clear, however, that while it was consistent with what I laid out (liquidity drying up, trying to skirmish at lower and lower price points), you could reasonably interpret it other ways. As I mentioned in at least one comment, seeing things play out in a manner consistent with your expectations is by no means positive confirmation that your thesis is correct. It just happens to be consistent with the evidence you have so far. Always keep that in mind.
I tried responding to a few comments and questions in realtime as I got notifications on my phone. Just as a heads up, I won't always be able to do so, and it seems like there were a number of knowledgeable people commenting in realtime anyway. As I've said in comments on my previous posts, I am definitely not the smartest person in the room, so don't just take my word for it just because I'm the original poster. Please challenge anything I say if you feel I'm mistaken, and don't dismiss out of hand people who may have a different viewpoint.
One thing I thought I noticed in early morning market hours action was that there was no sell order depth above the ticker price, which I interpret as a good sign. Downward pushes into fairly good volume got sucked back up largely in a low-volume vacuum. The most extreme example of this was the first push right at market open. Tons of volume to push the price down, then a tiny fraction of volume as price got sucked back up. This means very little continued panicking and bailing due to the aggressive push, resulting in gaps to the upside on the follow-on buying. There were messages and comments from people concerned that low price would let the short side cover, but, as I explained, low price doesn't help the short side unless they can buy at that low price in meaningful volume. That sort of action where price gaps up as soon as buying (whether by shorts or longs) is driving price tells you that there isn't much meaningful volume to be had at the lower prices. From a higher level view, volume through the day dropped as price dropped, and that seems to have remained consistently true throughout the day.
There was some very strange after-market volume. No idea what that may have been, other than maybe hedge unwinding as T+2 contract settlement outcomes were determined. It seemed, at least to me, to be too much volume in too dense a time window to be retailers bailing out of their accounts en mass. It would make no sense to do so into the vacuum of after hours anyway rather than the firmer price support of market hours.
I got messages that I was both a short side hedge fund shill and a long side pump and dump fraudster trying to somehow take peoples' money. My sentiment analysis KPIs thus indicate I'm likely striking a healthy balance (lol).
The Game (Theory)
Ok, but seriously, is this situation a pump and dump?
Possibly.
I say possibly because, as I stated in a comment, a failed squeeze campaign is effectively identical to a pump and dump in that the only thing that happens is capital is transferred mostly from people who got in later to people who got in earlier. Even worse, in aggregate a good amount of capital may end up being transferred from the campaigners to the short side. Not that it was necessarily intended to be that way from the start--it's just what ends up happening if the campaign fails.
Ok, so failure aside, what are the dynamics of the trade? What kind of game is this?
In simplified terms, I'd describe a squeeze campaign where the short side doubles down as a modified
dollar auction where the winning side also takes the losing side's bid money. In other words, at an aggregate level, it's winner take all, go hard or go home, with all the excitement of market action in the middle. Note that I said in aggregate and with market action in the middle, as that basically means even the winning side will have individuals who lose possibly everything if they get washed out before the end. As I mentioned in some comments where I urged people to consider taking profits if they needed the money, this is going to be a white-knuckle trade to the very end.
Power
For most of our lives, most of the time, the saying that 'information is power' and the closely related 'knowledge is power' are abstract, philosophical truisms that people say to try to sound cool and edgy. More tangible and relevant to our daily lives might be 'money is power', or, for the least fortunate, the threat and reality of physical force.
Today, for many in the GME trade, that previously abstract philosophical truism gained intense and urgent relevance. What is current SI? Can you trust numbers from S3? What about Ortex? Are there counterfeit shares in play? What is the significance of Failures to Deliver? Can the short side cover their position off the exchange? etc. etc.
Being in this situation, if nothing else, has lifted the veil for many people. The right information, in the right circumstances, is incredibly powerful. It outlines in stark contrast the power dynamics of information asymmetry.
If you want to exercise more agency in your future as a trader and investor, you have to make a habit of cultivating your critical thinking skills and ensuring you have diverse and often divergent sources of information. Do not let yourself be trapped in an information bubble where you can be easily manipulated. Most of all, try to avoid developing a
siege mentality at all costs. If nothing else, in my opinion, it's critical for your long-term financial success.
I don't know the answer to those questions definitively, and my purpose in creating this account and posting is absolutely not to get people to listen and necessarily believe everything I write. In fact, it would make me happier if I see people use some of the tools, techniques, and concepts I've tried to introduce to challenge some of my thinking. Catching my mistakes helps me. Doing it in the open for all to read helps everyone.
Faith, Conviction, Calculated Risk
Many people trade and invest according to wildly divergent strategies.
Some people, including those that most Wall Street types consider to be 'responsible' investors, invest on blind faith. You put your capital is someone else's hands (hopefully a qualified fiduciary), and trust that they will do a good job. The only judgment you exercise really is in choosing the person(s) in which to place your faith. This is not entirely unlike what many WSBettors are doing with respect to DFV. I do this with my retirement accounts, though lately I've been considering transferring about half my retirement capital to a self-directed IRA.
Others trade on conviction. They have, for whatever reason, a very strong belief in an investment thesis that they are willing to put to the test by putting capital at risk, and are willing to lean into the thesis through unfavorable price action so long as no disconfirming evidence comes to light. I consider value investors to fall into this category.
Others are momentum traders and 'technical analysts', who are trying to read the market data to look for asymmetrical calculated risk opportunity. These opportunities need not necessarily be tied to any particular underlying fundamental investment thesis. All that matters is whether you win on a sufficiently frequent basis and carefully manage your downside risk.
I think it's healthy to try to gain an understanding of all three approaches. I personally also find it necessary to be careful if you find yourself switching between those approaches mid-trade. I.e., if you started in the GME trade on faith, it may be deeply disturbing if you find yourself in the no-man's land between faith and conviction, where you have learned enough to understand more of the risks in the trade, but not enough to understand the underlying investment thesis of how it could play out. I'm not saying you shouldn't try to make that transition--just try to maintain self awareness if you choose to do so to avoid making any rash decisions.
Swimming In The Deep
So, the consistent #1 question I always get: what happens next? My consistent answer, which I know frustrates everyone, is I don't know, and no one else does either.
One person in the comments made an astute observation that perhaps the truth, which some may find disturbing, is that our fate really lies in the hands of the whales on the long side rather than retail being in the driver's seat. This may very well be true. I would give it better than even odds at this point. In fact, even if retail collectively represents more shares in this trade, retail is not a well-organized, monolithic entity, and therefore would have more difficulty playing a decisive role at critical times.
Another question I got, which was a very good one to be asking, is what evidence do we have that there really are whales on the long side? For me, there have been critical actions over the past few days that I would have found to be highly unlikely to be achievable by retail investors, such as the sustained HFT duel into the close on Friday. That was very consistent, relatively well controlled, and sustained push on volume of 6-7mio shares traded in the $250 - $330/share price range. Oversimplified math would peg that at just shy of $2bn in capital flow. That is not retail--particularly with so many retail brokerages restricting trading at that time. The 17mio shares sold into the aftermarket action consistent with a squeeze (and Ortex reported reduction in short interest) is also definitely not retail. Others have pointed out massive action in the options today. Tons of block purchases in the millions of dollars and high 6 figures. Not retail.
All of that being said, does that really change very much? Even if you consider yourself to be part of a movement, and have genuine feelings of solidarity with your retail fellows (I do, which is why I'm writing these posts and holding that core position), in the end you are trading as an individual. This is a point that I have made repeatedly. In the end, you need to know yourself, know your trade, and have a plan. Your plan may conceivably be to follow someone else (I know many are following DFV to whatever the end may be), but in the end even that is still your plan as an individual.
If my thesis is correct we will continue to see lower trade volumes, and price grinding down to a floor of harder support, possibly even at the retail line of support (~$148/$150) I outlined in a prior post. There may also be some price dislocation tomorrow depending on options contract T+2 settlement impact. I don't know enough about what to expect there. If the squeeze is to happen, unless RH lifting restrictions or people transferring their accounts causes a surge of retail momentum, it will happen after that type of price movement continues for a while (maybe days, maybe longer), until sufficient liquid float has been locked up.
Right now options action is heavily weighted to puts, so any market maker hedging activity will put more pressure on price.
If the squeeze fails to happen there won't be a siren, ringing of a bell, or anything like that. It might happen gradually and non-obviously until suddenly, as only the market seems to be able to do, it becomes obvious that whoever's still there has been left holding the bag. Hopefully this isn't the case, but if it is I'll be right there with what at that point may only buy me a razor scooter rather than a car lol.
If it succeeds, it should be fairly obvious. Just don't forget to ring the register!
Either way, this is market history in the making. As I said in a previous comment, when you ride the rocket, it's definitely not going to be smooth--but it might just be awesome.
Apologies for the lengthy post again. Good luck in the market!
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GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread
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GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread
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Evidence pointing to shorts did not cover pretended they did (via options) to break the squeeze (Feedback requested)
I know you guys are probably sick of hearing GME related stuff but I really wanted to post this here to get some additional thoughts/feedback from experienced investors.
Long post ahead, but I encourage you to read the whole thing.
TLDR: Data points strongly point to Hedge Funds using tricks to appear as if they covered their shorts when they haven't truly covered. Full version below.
There’s an insightful piece on
https://tradesmithdaily.com/investing-strategies/the-drop-in-gamestop-short-interest-could-be-real-or-deceptive-market-manipulation/ that identifies there are two ways for both short interest and price to fall quickly.
First way is retail investors not holding the line and panic selling thereby driving the price down further, releasing into the market more of the float and enabling shorts to covebuy back shares at progressively lower levels.
**
Quoting from Tradesmithdaily:
Plummeting short interest along with a plummeting GME share price, in other words, could indicate that the Reddit army is headed for the hills, and the longs were selling early, giving the shorts a means to cover, as the longs got out… Important to note that if the long holders of GME shares did not break ranks and sell en masse, it would have been impossible for the share price to fall and hedge fund short interest to fall at the same time. because, without a critical mass of long-side holders selling into the market, the hedge funds covering their shorts would have nobody to buy from as they covered (bought back) their short positions.
**
However the other scenario where this can occur is the hedge fund short interest in GME didn’t really dissipate but instead they played a trick to make it seem like it did, demoralizing the retail side and further “breaking the squeeze.”
**
To now quote verbatim from Tradesmithdaily:
The way the hedge funds could have done this — made it appear as if they covered their shorts, even when they really didn’t — involves trickery in the options market.
The tactics involved are not a secret. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) knows all about such tactics, and published a “risk alert” memo on the topic in August 2013.
The SEC memo is titled “Strengthening Practices for Preventing and Detecting Illegal Options Trading Used to Reset Reg SHO Close-out Obligations.” You can
read it here via the SEC website.
The memo contains a dozen pages of highly technical language, but here’s a quick rundown:
- If short sellers are facing a squeeze because shares are hard to buy, or scrutiny for holding an illegal short position, they can create an appearance of having closed their short position through the use of deceptive options trades.
- A hedge fund that is short a stock can write call options on a stock — meaning they are now “short” the call options, having sold the call options to someone else (typically a market maker) — and simultaneously buy shares against the call options.
- The shares bought against the call options could be “synthetic” longs — meaning they are not part of the original share float of the stock — as sold to the hedge fund by the market maker that takes the other side of the options trade.
- This works because, if a market maker buys options from an options writer, the market maker has legal privileges to do a version of “naked shorting” as part of their hedging function. This is necessary, under the current rules and the current system, for market makers to protect themselves when facilitating options trades.
- As a result of the above transaction, the hedge fund that sold short calls was able to buy synthetic long shares against the calls. (A synthetic share is one that has a long on one side and a short on the other but wasn’t part of the original float.) The synthetic long shares are the other side of the naked shorts, legally initiated by the market maker, so the market maker can hedge.
- The hedge fund that bought the shares can now report that they have “bought back” their short position via buying long shares — except they actually haven’t! The synthetic shares they bought are canceled out against the short call positions they initiated, a necessity of the maneuver by way of the market maker’s hedging of the call position they bought from the hedge fund.
It gets very complicated, very fast.
But the gist is that hedge funds can use tricks to make it look like they’ve covered their shorts — even if they haven’t truly covered, and can’t, for lack of available float — by way of exploiting loopholes that exist due to an interplay of reporting rule delays, market maker naked shorting exceptions, and legal practices of synthetic share creation (new longs and shorts made from thin air) relating to market-making.
Below is a section of the SEC memo (from page 8) that gets to the heart of it:
“Trader A may enter a buy-write transaction, consisting of selling deep-in-the-money calls and buying shares of stock against the call sale. By doing so, Trader A appears to have purchased shares to meet the broker-dealer’s close-out obligation for the fail to deliver that resulted from the reverse conversion. In practice, however, the circumstances suggest that Trader A has no intention of delivering shares, and is instead re-establishing or extending a fail position.”
**
In short (no pun intended) these tricks “help hedge funds maintain short positions that, legally speaking, they weren’t supposed to have because the shares were never properly located”, which triggers alarm bells when we consider the extraordinarily high amount of FTIDs/Failed to Deliver Shares (
https://wherearetheshares.com/) and Michael Burry’s (now deleted tweet viewable here
https://web.archive.org/web/20210130030954/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry?lang=en) about how when he called back shares he lent out, brokers took weeks to actually find them with the implication they could not be located.
These factors lend credence to the idea that shorts weren’t really covered but were given the impression of being covered with trickery using options, in order to “cover” short positions that they shouldn’t have had to begin with because shares were never properly located.
Separately but potentially related, S3 released updated short numbers last Sunday reducing from their projection of short interest from 122% to 113% (a day later on Friday) to 55% on Sunday (while markets were closed therefore in my estimation using the same data set that calculated 113%), which many found to be suspicious. Later it was found that this new number was calculated using the same data set that yielded 122% short interest percentage, but with the significant difference of adding synthetic long shares into the short float equation which is against standard practice.
For a more detailed breakdown a user here pasted a good analysis of how those numbers were reached
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/laoaru/read_this_they_are_screwed_numbers_dont_lie/ **
Excerpt:
The real short % according to S3's data is 122%. However, their 55% figure is technically not a lie, but extremely misleading. I will explain everything.
Here is what they did:Sources (S3 head):
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1355990194575564801?s=19https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1356004816414269448https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1355969693841051650 S3 head is redefining share float to include shares that don't exist in order to be able to say shorted % of float is lower.
it reduces the traditional SI % Float, Instead of Shares Shorted/Float our calc is Shares Shorted/ (Float + Shares Shorted)
So, by this definition, if a stock is shorted 400% of existing shares (total banana count borrowed and resold 4x) and total shares is 100, short % is calculated like this:400 shorts / (100 shares + 400 longs whose shares are borrowed) = 0.8That is, the normal way we define short % would say it's 400% shorted. S3's way says 80%.
Knowing this formula, we can work back to what S3 would have said the short % of float was using the normal definition of short % of float:55% short of float means for all existing shares + shorts (or, ont he other side of the trade "longs whose shares were borrowed away to short") is 55/45 as much as existing shares. Meaning, portion of shares short by the normal definition (% of existing bananas borrowed) is 55/45 = 1.22
That is, S3's data is telling them that after friday trading, GME is still 122% short.
**
Many have pointed out this could be manipulation on S3’s part. It’s interesting to note that as late as the Jan 29th, Ihor from S3 stated most GME shorts have not covered and net shares shorted hadn't moved much at all (
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1355246955874701314). Initially on the 28th he claimed short interest float to be $122 (
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1354847896173240322). The next day he claimed short interest to be 113% (
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1355249817048522755) of float. 2 days later on Sunday, S3 released a report on the calculated short interest to be 55% (oddly their original announcement tweet appears deleted, but found this
https://twitter.com/S3Partners/status/1356392101806800897), which was confusing to many as this was a big discrepancy in short percentage in a short time. It turned out this percentage was calculated by including synthetic longs into the equation which is a practice that is not standard, thereby yielding a lower short interest percentage of 55% which the media then bandied around before and during market open on Monday. Whether this involved collusion to harm the retail investor I cannot conclusively say as I don’t have the evidence to conclusively make that claim, but definitely something to consider along with all other data points.
With the possibility of Synthetic Long Shares being used in a fraudulent way, if you care about how this could play out if we force the issue, I would recommend you to follow instructions from this comment
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lcpwh0/how_gme_can_still_be_a_great_play/gm2tsnw/ and call or email Gamestop Investor Relations and ask them to call an emergency share holder meeting to save the company from bankruptcy, as calling this vote means calling shares back to owners eliminating all synthetic stock, and hence taking leverage away from short selling funds participating in fraudulent activity
If you'd like to read more into the subject here are more solid posts that are related to this subject that I recommend you check out:
https://old.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lalucf/i_suspect_the_hedgies_are_illegally_covering/ https://old.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the_real_reason_wall_street_is_terrified_of_the/ https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lanf94/gme_is_a_time_bomb_and_its_highlighting_a_severe/ https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lag1d3/why_gme_short_interest_appears_to_have_fallen/ https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l9rk78/sec_doj_60_minutes_public_data_suggests_massive/ https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l9z88h/evidence_of_massive_naked_short_selling_fraud_in/ https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lbydkz/s3_partners_s3_si_of_float_metric_is_total/ GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]
Fintel's constantly changing stats for AMC
 | I've been following fintel's reports for quite some time - way before I knew about AMC and GME. Their reports have been quite accurate, but recently I've been noticing some shady activity that has made me raise an eyebrow. To preface, I am usually not a conspiracy person myself. Even with all the weird movements this past week, I would not like to shout "market manipulation" until I'm completely sure there's something going on. Ironically, all this shady changes have been happening right before dissemination day (02/09/2021). The first one I would like to point one is the one that makes the most sense to me: My screenshot (02/05/2021): https://preview.redd.it/laf5lci10fg61.jpg?width=1072&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a6849c1c430c3d2878213a1ee7dfc87b2eaba47b Current report (02/08/2021): https://preview.redd.it/xk8hlhj30fg61.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8aba006b33a4b703ca7eee7ed856f553a80dc98 The short volume ratio dropped drastically (twice). The second time it dropped is what you can see in the second image - i.e. the current report on Fintel. For the first drop, unfortunately, I don't have an image to prove it. But, what I do remember is that for the 3rd of February the percentage was 53% rather than 27%. Regardless, what you can notice is that there is a noticeable change. This one I'm willing to blame on "updating data". I presume short volume is not as simple to track as most of us believe and there is probably a large number of elements that can either spoof a system into believe that the numbers are much higher. However, one thing that we can notice is (if this were true) how often Fintel updates their stats. My screenshot was on the 5th of Feb, and the current one (8th of Feb). This shows that Fintel has updated their stats twice in the span of 3/4 days. Right, where things start to get fishy is when we look at the historical values of short volume over the past year. My screenshot (02/06/2021): https://preview.redd.it/gmcdpj160fg61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0ee6ebdc7c597af71e347af5e07492fcb73fb9d Current report (02/08/2021): https://preview.redd.it/uildby970fg61.png?width=890&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe9284081630cd1b25087b0fe69abaa112e7eaf3 As you can see the first screenshot I had taken shows that during there was a higher short volume in February compared to prior months. This was after the first correction that I had mentioned previously (the one I don't have a screenshot for). In April of 2020, in the first screenshot the average short volume was recorded to be about 45% and now it's showing it to be above 85%. And February of 2021 is showing to be one of the lowest short volumes. I get the short volume being updated regularly for day values. But for historical data? Especially with such a huge change? And all of this came out a few days before dissemination day? There was a person on Stocktwits who claimed that he got his subscription cancelled, automatically, after reaching out to Fintel to ask them why are their numbers changing so rapidly and so often. https://preview.redd.it/ld1mxyo90fg61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a4774a3d9b9e2766576004cc50666ac9d5cfbcff Here's the email he received. https://preview.redd.it/s04tukbb0fg61.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=812fbfea028d41767684ceef6e2c7eb65a87d5d7 Again, there might be a lot more complexities behind short volume calculations. But all of this seems like more than a coincidence. Thoughts. P.S I'm not a financial advisor just a smooth brained ape who doesn't like what he sees. P.S.P.S I'm still holding strong! Edit: A lot of people were asking what does this mean. It doesn't mean anything per se. It just shows that there is some odd movement happening with Fintel's platform. One of the top comments pointed out a conversation he had with Fintel: "Thanks so much for reaching out to Fintel with your concern! You are right. Given the recent market activity we wanted to implement more data sources as a check, to gain a richer overview of stocks. Given this, we have revised some historical numbers. We announced this in the Welcome Group and on those pages. Sorry the message wasn’t up for longer - I imagine that was super confusing. We will replace it again. I imagine many subscribers did get to see it. Are you certain the chart isn’t updating? That is an automated process. I appreciate you writing in so I could clarify. I’ll resolve your ticket but I’m still here if you reply." I mean, this is possible. However, why now? Why after a year do they decide to go ahead an say "oh yeah, let's update these statistics so we can show more "accurate" measurements to our users". Ya know? Also, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel: Borrowing fees for AMC went up by 1% (currently sitting at 4.47% from the previous 3.5%. Usually an increase means that more people are borrowing shares to short. Edit X2: A fellow ape showed me that someone else over at the RubinoffButtChug69 made a similar speculation. His post ( link) also points out that Apple's stock has not been effected by any of this. And for all of you asking about GME - the same post points out that GME also suffered from this. It's short volume got lowered by 50%. ***UPDATE**\* This beautiful ape tweeted at Fintel referencing this post https://preview.redd.it/w4seq03r6cg61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=24808432116a21e6764ac9d1508faab3e26cd2c3 This is their response: https://preview.redd.it/ft0xrjbt6cg61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54c3cb8e783953cd2b62f069245e282e4efd86d5 So their excuse is a "programming error". Fine, let's say that that's true for the daily short volume, right? But for the historical values of past months compare to February? And with the previous response they gave the other ape from WSB (if true). I'm just sayin' feels like excuses to me. |
GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]
Marshmallow Mania and the Cult of 240F.
Big Mallow is a cabal that's been spreading disinformation. 240F is a big, fat, arbitrary lie.
(
tl;dr: Marshmallow Mania hit me, and I spent 20+ hours making marshmallows. My findings suggest that the texture of marshmallows is dependent on the sum total proportions of the marshmallow ingredients, not the degree of sugar syrup heating. 240F is an arbitrary syrup temperature, and is used across the board for relatively similar ingredient proportions.)
A short time ago, I was developing my "egg yolk-based marshmallow"/marshyellow recipe (still needs a bit of tweaking). I was doing some research, and noticed something kind of...odd about the information regarding a specific step.
Here's the Wikipedia entry for making marshmallows that gave me pause, courtesy of Chocolates and confections: Formula, theory, and technique for the artisan confectioner: Anything jump out at you? No? That might be because you haven't read a variety of marshmallow recipes.
Bruno aside, they ALL place marshmallows at 238F-240F. I've seen a lot of marshmallow recipes in my time, and I've NEVER seen Wikipedia's method of 227F. (And I was so confused by Bruno's recipe...265F was way higher than any I'd seen. But we'll come back to this.)
Wait, it gets even more confusing.
My confusion kept growing with every article I read. Everyone's telling me something different. Recipes that call for soft-ball! No, proclaim the sugar syrup stages, firm-ball or hard-ball! And for some reason, Wikipedia's telling me the THREAD stage is what you want. This was perturbing; if baking is a science, my impression of candy making is that of analytical chemistry. It's precise, exact, and demands strict adherence to the recipe beyond what baking asks and cajoles. I was under the impression that the sugar syrup's concentration is critical to somehow correctly forming marshmallows. So what's going on here? Why's everyone using the same temperature in their recipes, despite background info to the contrary?
Clearly, there's a conspiracy being perpetrated by Big Mallow. They're trying to keep us in the dark, to prevent us from tinkering with marshmallow recipes.
So I...um...made a ton of marshmallows to figure this out. (pictured: about 2/3 of every batch I made, along with some marshyellow variants) Marshmallow Mania reigned supreme, and I spent an ungodly amount of time making them for both this experiment, and for my marshyellow recipe improvement. I'll also note that I had to eat an ungodly number of the stupid clouds of sugar and fluff, and would gladly never consume another so long as I draw breath.
First, to determine if you can make marshmallows at all of the claimed stages.
I checked my thermometer in a pot of boiling water to ensure accurate readings. Then I made batches of marshmallows at varying sugar syrup temperatures.
Here's my recipe and methodology (base recipe is based on a scaled-down version of Migoya's 'mallows):
8g powdered gelatin
47g cold water
110g granulated, white sugar
120g corn syrup
50g water
3g salt
~2.5mL vanilla extract
In the bowl of a stand mixer, bloom the gelatin in the cold water. Combine sugar, corn syrup, and water in a saucepan. Heat to (VARIABLE) temperature, and slowly add to bloomed gelatin, while whipping on medium-low speed. Turn mixer speed to max, and whip for exactly five minutes, adding the salt and vanilla halfway through. Using a greased spatula, scoop as much batter as possible into a greased pan, and use a greased offset spatula to smooth the top. Let sit for a minimum of 8 hours to cure, then cut into cubes and coat in an equal mixture (w/w) of cornstarch and powdered sugar.
Between each batch, I scrupulously cleaned all utensils with hot water to avoid sugar crystal residue.
Left-to-right: 225F. 230F, 240F, 245F, 250F, 262F After coating, the marshmallows were stored at room temperature in ziploc bags to maintain freshness/moisture contents.
The most apparent conclusion is that, yes, you can ABSOLUTELY make marshmallows at varying sugar syrup stages. Well, in a sense. They're all "marshmallows", in the sense that they're masses of aerated, gelatinized sugar blobs. I'm sure plenty of people have their own personal textural notions of what a "marshmallow" should be. But here are the differences:
Volume: Due to what I imagine is increased viscosity (due to decreased water concentrations of the syrup), the volume of batter decreases proportionally to elevated sugar temps.
Here, you can see the two extremes, 225F vs 262F. Weight: The lower temps allowed for increased aeration, which resulted in larger yields of 'mallow, and there's a downward trend corresponding to total batch weights and increased syrup temps. (225F->262F respectively, 249g, 242g, 222g, 211g, 203g, 165g)
Texture: The higher the syrup temp, the chewier and more "taffy-like" the marshmallow. Charybdis, my poor stand mixer, had a tough time whipping the 262F, that stuff was t h i c c. In contrast, the 225F melts in your mouth, with barely any chew. Far more pillowy, jiggly, etc.
Caramelization: The lower the syrup temp, the higher the final moisture content.
Held 10cm away from a torch, I noticed that it took slightly longer to caramelize the lower temp marshmallows. I wonder if there's also an aeration-based insulation factor at work (given the apparent increase in aeration in the lower-temp syrups).
So now I knew you can make marshmallows at most sugar syrup stages (I haven't tried soft-crack and upwards, I fear for my stand mixer's health after the 262F). Then I had a thought: what if the sugar syrup was a function of achieving a specific texture?
Enter the final experiment. Let's take the taffymallows of 262F and see if we can turn them into 230F squishmallows. At 262F, the sugar concentration is ~92%, and at 230F, it's ~80%. I calculated the amount of water lost at 262F, and added an amount of water to the gelatin that would correspond to the concentration at 230F. I figured it's easier to work "backwards", ie, make a higher temp identical to a lower temp. Going "forwards" might create an issue where reducing the water added to the gelatin leads to insufficient bloom. I don't thiiink you can "over-bloom" gelatin, so I doubt the reverse is true.
Well.
Here's the faux-230F with the real 230F::
[Compare the volume difference of the
faux-230F to the
262F and the 225F. By visual inspection, they were about double in volume to the original 262F!
And the texture was near-identical in nature to the 230F. The former were ever-so-slightly softer and "meltier", but they were also made a day or so after the latter, and I'm convinced that this accounts for the minor discrepancy. The final batch weights were identical too, suggesting similar aeration percentages.
(Note: The fact that they're
identical is a happy coincidence. There will be minor discrepancies due to unequal scooping of the batter into the pans, as well as additional mass from the sugacornstarch mixture. I cut all the batches into similar size cubes, so the surface areas would be similar, and they'd pick up similar quantities of the mixture.)
Suddenly, Bruno's aberrant 265F temperature made sense. His recipe uses egg whites in addition to gelatin, and egg whites are ~90% water. He heats his syrup to a much higher stage to compensate for the additional moisture content. I imagine that if you followed his recipe to a T, but stuck with good ol' 240F, the marshmallows would barely have much structure, and would be closer to the 225F squishmallows than what you'd typically want out of a marshmallow.
I did a repeat experiment with a different final hydration stage: 262F to 240F. The results were the same as before: I compared the product to my 262F and 240F marshmallows, and again, the faux-240F were no different than the real 240F (save, again, for a near-imperceptible difference for the same given reason as before).
Now, I refuse to say "I conclude X to be true", because my experiment isn't rigorous in the least. I didn't repeat each step numerous times, testing every possible extreme, I didn't test every potential example, etc. I would, but I think I'd go nuts, as I'd have an issue juggling this with my full-time job and other hobbies. I also nearly ran out of my 1lb tub of gelatin. So I'm going to leave it as "the data
suggests that..."
But the general idea this all suggests - aside from me being crazy - is that you can alter marshmallow recipes to achieve a texture
you prefer simply by changing either the syrup temperature, or the gelatin hydration. If you found a nice recipe for egg white marshmallows, but find them too soft for your liking, you can decrease the gelatin hydration within reason, and/or increase the sugar syrup temperature by some amount to make them chewier and more stable. If you don't mind the bit of math, you use this info to take more control of the marshmallow process.
I'm still not sure why people so unanimously use 240F as their temperature. I can imagine a scenario where Head Chef tells their underlings "Heat it to 240F, because [something something reasonable-yet-incorrect explanation]", and everyone follows HC's lead and reasoning. They move up the ranks, and proliferate HC's recipes, and if challenged about the reasoning, refer to HC's expertise to bolster their claims.
Look how many differing explanations people have about brownie skin/crust formation: It's easier to pull from your combined experience and instinct, and offer up a reasonable explanation, than to rigorously experiment your way to the answer. Or maybe there's actually a cult, I dunno.
But anyhow, thus concludes the week of the marshmallow. Please subject to peer review if you're also marshmallow-obsessed. I'd love additional insights and data!
How to Survive Camping - old habits die hard
I run a private campground. One of the things I have to think about is fire management. Obviously, there’s a lot of wood around here. And obviously, if the campground goes up in flames, I lose my livelihood. I do some land management to protect against that by clearing out dry underbrush periodically and put in rules about fire pits and my staff make routine inspections to make sure they’re followed. Many of you have suggested using fire as a weapon against the inhuman things and each time I point out that this
is a forest and while we don’t have a lot of dry wood, the odds of the entire thing going up are not zero.
And then I went and threw a molotov cocktail into a room entirely made of wood.
In my defense, it wasn’t
technically in the campground. Only very technically.
If you’re new here, you should really
start at the beginning and if you’re totally lost,
this might help. Beau’s assistance had cleared the thorns from my body. I spent a miserable few days coughing up plant matter. At least it’s winter so we don’t have much work to do and I could sit in my house and play video games as a distraction. I’m super obsessed with Octopath Traveler right now.
There were still the thorns planted throughout the campground to deal with, however. I wasn’t terribly worried. We had the stone, the one that contained the thorn’s death, and all I had to do was summon Beau and figure out what the next step was.
Of course, when I summoned him, he didn’t show. I had even made hot chocolate with a bit of Bailey’s. So I drank it all myself and then fueled by booze and a sugar high, I went tromping through the snow to find him.
The thought of him being in danger or otherwise unable to respond was only a vague worry. He’s been elusive ever since I refused to go to the harvesters. It’s hard to tell if he’s angry at me or just being moody. It certainly isn’t because I’m good enough with a knife that I don’t need his help anymore. I intended to ask him what the problem was, once I found him. I decided to walk along the road through the deep woods, as that was both the safest place and where he tended to be found.
It took a few days of hiking around the campsite, but I eventually found Beau. He was up ahead on the road, waiting for me. As I approached, he turned and began walking again, so that I could catch up and we walked along side-by-side.
“I haven’t seen you much,” I said tentatively.
“I’m avoiding you.”
“That’s obvious.”
I waited, but no explanation was forthcoming.
“Did I… upset you?”
He seemed genuinely confused as to why, so I explained how I saw the situation. How I’d ignored his suggestion and gone to the hall of the gummy bears instead. He gave a soft laugh at that and reminded me - once again - that he was not human.
“Why would I take offense?” he asked. “You made a choice that was yours to make.”
“Then why are you avoiding me?”
We walked along in silence for a bit more and the only sound was the packed snow crunching beneath our feet. I was careful to keep some distance between us, keenly aware that my mere presence was contrary to his nature. Like magnets, I thought, pushing each other away.
“You’re marked for death,” he finally sighed. “It hovers over your head like a halo. Here is my mark, wrought of blood.”
He stepped close and gestured, his hand passing through the space a few inches from my hair.
“There are more, now. All of these bargains and debts you’ve accumulated, twisting together into a cord that will someday settle tight around your neck and take away your life.”
“And you’re bound to me,” I whispered.
He took a single step backwards, dropping his hand by his side, his expression grim.
“I feel the fomorian’s mark upon me as well. I do not care to accumulate more.”
I asked him to describe them to me. He hesitated, and then very reluctantly, told me a few. One of shadow, trailing in the wind as if the slightest breeze would eradicate it. I suppose that’s what happens when the person who made that mark is trapped inside the thing in the dark. Good riddance to him. Another of iron, shattered now, and crumbling. The lady with extra eyes. One of thorns, marking the intent of the fomorian.
And of course, a crown of teeth. A very old crown, passed down along the family line. The claim of the beast.
There were more, he said, but he refused to elaborate. He seemed uneasy, as if merely describing them was more familiarity than he cared to have. I didn’t press. Honestly, I’m not sure I want to know exactly how many creatures have it out for me. I’d probably never sleep again out of paranoia.
He soon turned off the road and into the woods. I followed a bit more slowly, struggling through the deep snow. The temperature has been in the teens lately, with the windchill bringing it down to single digits. I envied Beau and his total indifference to the cold.
He led me to a patch of thorns. It was one I knew of already and had tried to uproot. The snow around it was mixed with loose soil from earlier attempts. Let me tell you - it is really tough to dig up bushes in the middle of the winter with the ground as frozen as it is.
Beau extended his cup and held it up over the thorns. He tilted it, slowly, until a thin stream of liquid poured forth. It steamed in the cold air and melted the snow where it struck the ground at the base of the thorns.
“Is that it?” I asked softly. “This will kill them?”
“Yes. My cup carries the stone’s essence and the roots of the thorns will drink deeply of their own death.”
“I’m surprised you’re helping me so directly.”
“It’s not just for you,” he replied, his eyes narrowed as he watched the contents of his skull steam in the snow. “This is my home and as you recall, I am unable to leave it. I have no desire to be ruled by a tyrant.”
A thought occurred to me.
“Do the other inhabitants feel the same?”
“Of course. Do you recall how the musician saved you from the horse?”
Ah. I’d not thought too much of it at the time. I was helping them out with the children, after all, so it stood to reason that they’d want to repay the favor by saving my life. We stood in silence for a bit longer, watching the thorns shrivel into withered, dry branches where the liquid from Beau’s cup had touched them. I could only imagine the roots were now doing the same. Tentatively, I reached out and tapped one of the afflicted branches. It broke off as if it were made of spun sugar and smashed into dust when it landed in the snow. As if it’d been dead for centuries.
“Could I get help from the other inhabitants of the campground?” I asked. “I know the fairy doesn’t want help, but we still have to deal with the formorian’s indirect effects on the land.”
“Don’t,” Beau replied sharply. “You would only endanger them. They won’t take such a risk.”
“You’re helping me,” I said pointedly.
He grunted and turned his back to me, walking back towards the road.
“I was already marked by my association with you,” he said.
When I was trapped in the dream that the master of the vanishing house had wove for me, I told it that I could not love it, for everything I love dies. It feels like another lifetime ago. I withdrew my hand from the bush and stuffed it in my pocket as I hastily followed Beau.
He went from bush to bush, repeating the process with each. After a few more I realized that my presence was entirely unnecessary and probably even annoying to him, so I awkwardly thanked him and excused myself.
I went back to the house and played more video games. I only felt a little guilty about it.
The next day I stumbled into the kitchen and brewed coffee. Then, mug in hand, I went to the kitchen table and pulled back the curtains to get some early morning sunlight.
Beau was standing directly outside.
I screamed in surprise and dropped my mug. It was my “Live, Laugh, Love” mug that I took from the camp lost and found so it wasn’t a huge loss. We wind up with quite a few mugs in lost and found and hardly any of them get claimed. After a year they become camp property. I can’t remember the last time I
bought myself a mug.
I invited Beau in while I cleaned up the mess. He hovered uncomfortably in the archway between the kitchen and the living room, not saying anything. Only when I was done mopping up coffee did I turn and ask him what he wanted.
He presented his cup in mute explanation. Only a small drop of liquid remained inside.
“Where’s the pebble?” I asked, going to get my sharpest kitchen knife.
“I still have it, in case the fomorian plants more thorns.”
Blood from that which was already there. Blood freely given. I held out my palm and let my blood drop into the cup.
“Where do you plan on getting the blood forcibly taken?” I asked softly.
I wasn’t sure I wanted to know. The only staff on site during the winter were my most trusted people, like Ed and Bryan. I didn’t want any of them to be targets.
“I want to leave the campground.”
I sucked in an involuntary breath. He wanted to take blood from someone outside my land. One of the townspeople, perhaps. They’d thrown an uproar over him poisoning a few people on Halloween. I hated to think how they’d react to him
stabbing someone.
“Do you have someone in mind?” I asked.
“I do.” “Will you kill them?”
“Will my answer change your decision?”
No. It would not. I
needed Beau. And Perchta’s warning… well, it was not so black and white as I’d assumed. There was some flexibility here.
I wish I were surprised by how easily I slipped back into old habits. The same old rationalizations. Better someone else’s life than my own. Better a stranger’s life than someone I know. It feels inevitable that I would resort to this. It takes more than a threat to turn someone into a good person.
I won’t apologize. I won’t make excuses. You know what kind of person I am. I did the calculations, weighed my options, and this is what I chose.
I got my car keys and told Beau to come with me.
We went to someone that lived on the outskirts of town. It took a while to get there, as Beau couldn’t tell me what roads to turn on. He could only give directions in a vague sense, such as east or west. At least he was patient. He barely moved, sitting in the passenger seat, not wearing a seatbelt, with his cup cradled against his chest. Finally, he told me we’d arrived and I pulled into the driveway of a small house surrounded by a stretch of overgrown field that was subsequently swallowed up by forest. A black pickup truck was parked in the gravel driveway.
Beau got out. I stayed where I was for a moment, nervously holding onto the steering wheel, and then I reluctantly followed him. Better if I saw this through. I had to know what I’d done.
He knocked on the door. A man in his late forties, perhaps, answered. His hair was thinning. He squinted at Beau suspiciously.
And Beau… gestured with one hand. Just a simple half-twist of his wrist.
The man coughed. Blood spurted out of his mouth. It streamed from his nose. And my insides twisted with horror as his eyes began to leak blood, as it spilled out through his tear ducts. It beaded up on his forehead, forced out through every one of his pores. It streamed out of him through every available channel, soaking his clothing, dripping from his ears, and he twitched and shook and choked as his skin grew white and his heart raced and then finally collapsed on itself.
He landed face-first onto the pavement of his porch. The blood floated above him as a red mist and Beau made another subtle gesture, directing it to gracefully stream like a river through the air and into his cup. There was far more blood than the vessel could contain - an entire human body’s worth - but the cup never overflowed. It filled and filled, brilliant crimson like a ruby, until there was none left to take.
The bloodless corpse lay on the ground with not a mark on it to indicate what had happened.
I realized that my hands were trembling. I struggled to move, to find my voice. Beau turned around and faced me and there was a soft, satisfied smile on his face.
“Have you
always been able to do that?” I demanded, my voice coming out higher than I’d prefer, betraying my panic.
“Yes.”
The expression on the man’s face was burned into my mind. His desperate agony, tears of blood streaming down his cheeks, his body rigid as his own blood clawed its way free of his veins. I tried to banish it with something else. Anything else.
“So the time I found a body like that and spent three weeks hanging garlic up everywhere thinking we had a vampire on the campground… that was
you?”
“Yes.”
I took a breath, trying to calm my nerves.
“Do you have any idea how much I spent on garlic?!”
“Do I
care?”
I whirled away from him and stalked back to the car, digging my hands into my hair. Okay, the garlic didn’t matter. I just… that was what came to my mind first. Trying to bury what I’d just seen in something more mundane, I suppose. Trying to distract myself from the fact that Beau could kill people in a far more horrifying way than simply slitting their throat or fatally poisoning them.
At least it was relatively fast. I took a deep breath and opened my car door. He’d threatened me with worse when I first met him.
It was a tense drive back to the campground. When we were back on familiar roads I thought to ask Beau why he’d chosen this person, specifically.
“He double-parks.”
“And?”
He glanced at me in mild surprise.
“What else do you need?”
“Are you
kidding me? I just let you murder someone because they
double-park?”
“Murder?” His tone was sharp. “You let me refill my cup. I drained it to save your land. You ensured my
survival.”
Whatever it takes. The family tradition. My grandfather killed his share to protect our land. My parent’s hands certainly weren’t clean. And nor are mine.
I wish I could say that was the end of it. That I let Beau out once we were back at my house and he wandered off and nothing else happened. But what we’d done was not going to go unnoticed.
I stayed up late that night. I was awake because I was playing video games and making yet
another attempt at killing that damn direwolf in Octopath Traveler, like seriously, why is that thing so hard to kill? I must be doing something wrong. So after watching my party get their faces ripped off for like the fifth time I finally turned the TV off and went to bed. It was midnight. The little girl was crying softly by the window.
I’d barely climbed into bed when she stopped. I froze. That was
never a good sign.
“Oh no,” the little girl whispered. “No no no no.”
I acted on instinct. I threw myself out of bed and took cover behind it. The little girl screamed in fright and then my window shattered. The house shook with the impact. For a moment everything was still, save for the tinkling of some glass remnants striking the ground and the wild sobbing of the little girl.
Then…
“Campground manager!” the fomorian bellowed.
My blood ran cold. I felt frozen in place, cowering there next to the bed. The fomorian’s voice came at a distance. It wasn’t over the house’s property line, at least.
“I will find the one that killed my thorns at your behest!” it continued. “I will drag him here and I will tear him apart, little by little, and eat him alive. You will be helpless to watch and know what fate awaits you.”
Then I heard the cry of a horse and the sound of hoofbeats, receding into the distance. A warning. This was only a warning.
The fomorian intended to kill Beau.
Tentatively, I stood and turned on the bedside light. There was a body wedged through the broken window. It couldn’t fit through the frame, but it’d shattered the glass and now its head and part of its upper body was stuck. The hood of its garment mercifully covered its face, for I recognized it by its bulk.
One of the musicians. The fomorian had killed one of the dancer’s musicians. And, my heart sinking, I knew that it had to be the one that had rescued me from the dapple-gray stallion’s hooves.
I kill everything I love. Everything that gets close to me.
I’m a campground manager. I am also my mother’s daughter and the product of generations that believed life was expendable and we were but prey to these inhuman things. Herd animals, and sometimes one of our own had to be sacrificed to save the rest.
I’m certain that the new sheriff will find out about the body. She might not assume it was me, but I’ll be involved regardless. My family always is, when an odd death occurs. She’ll send the old sheriff because he’s better at dealing with me. And then what? Do I lie to him? I could. I think he’d believe me. I’ve gotten quite good at lying over the years doing this job.
It’s odd, how the thought of lying to him bothers me more than murdering that man did. I suppose that’s a consequence of sentimentality.
Sometimes I think I feel too little and sometimes I wish I didn’t feel so much. I’m starting to think… that maybe I’m a little more messed up inside than I thought.
Do I love Beau? I… would be sad if he were gone. Even after seeing what he did to that man. The need to refill his cup was real, but the criteria with which he chose his victim was… petty. That, I think, is cruelty. Beau is cruel. I can not defend him. Yet humans are stupid, emotional things and we form attachments without even realizing it until one day we realize how painful their absence will be. We bond with animals, with plants, and with people that don’t even exist - a character in a video game or a book.
I suppose I love Beau in the same way I love the barn cat with the kinked tail or the plant that my uncle gave me or Therion in Octopath Traveler.
I don’t want him to die.
[x] Read the full list of rules. Visit the campground's website. Speedrun Removal - Dream
There's a lot of posts here about my 1.16 speedrun time removal, and some people upset with my response on Twitter. Obviously, I didn't cheat in any way and I plan on making a video to address these things. However, it will take time for me to thoroughly and completely address it, as the accusations took two months for the mods to work on. It's not something I can throw together in a day, and is going to require a lot of my attention.
To clear up misinformation though, my 1.15 record remains up and verified, and I was not banned from submitting runs. My 1.16 (16th place, but 5th place when I got it) run was unverified due to the seemingly incredible statistical odds that I could have had the luck that I did over a few day period.
As I didn't cheat, I know that there's going to be a way to disprove the statistics, but again, I'm not a mathematician and I don't know how. I'm going to be most likely hiring multiple well renowned statisticians to look at the numbers, and most likely have a roll in my response. On top of that, most likely talking with Minecraft developers, as well as other prominent figures regarding it.
I understand that the numbers presented look suspicious, because they are not numbers you would ever expect to see during a non-glitched series of speedruns. I don't disagree with that, but I do have doubts that these numbers are entirely accurate, and I have doubts about the mods intent to fairly investigate my side.
As for addressing the physical side of "how" I may have cheated, I can completely and fully beyond a reasonable doubt prove that I did not use a mod or datapack during my speedruns, and how I can prove that will obviously be talked about in the video. It's not related to the statistics, but it does show that it is much much more likely that the statistics are off (or that there is some other contributing factor).
As for the video made by Geosquare, there was certain bits of misleading information, like the lie that I said that I "delete my mod contents regularly" (something that was never said). It made it seem like I was not cooperating with the investigation. I fully cooperated and provided every file that was ever requested from me, and I will be making those files public at some point in the future. On top of that, it was stated that I am a mod developer, when I have never developed a mod in my life, and do not know how to develop a mod. I can also reasonably prove this, and I offered the mod team at multiple points all of my development related files so they can tell that I did not code anything related to Minecraft RNG. It was also stated that it made it suspicious that I had "Fabric API" loaded, without mentioning why I had it loaded. I had provided the information of why I had Fabric API downloaded well before any suspicion involving Fabric API was brought forward. I volunteered the information that I did in fact have Fabric API downloaded, as I had nothing to hide. The log files that they showed in the video were again, volunteered by myself, as I had nothing to hide.
So as for the numbers, they seem very high, but they're most likely completely wrong. When working with numbers this big, one small mistake and it drops by orders of magnitudes. The numbers have fluctuated throughout the investigation, and according to inside sources where being debated internally up until minutes before the post. Numbers can be misleading, and have been used to falsely convict people in the justice system (unrelated to Minecraft), tens of thousands of times in the past, until later conflicting reports come out. I advise anyone that thinks that it's "1 in 10 trillion" or whatever was said, to hold your tongue and wait until I'm able to get statisticians to provide most likely more accurate numbers. In their paper there are a few obvious things I can point out, like the fact that they use "1000 speedrunners" as a quote "generous upper bound" for their statistics, when there are over 900 submitted runs on 1.16 Java edition alone, not to mention the around 10,000 people in the speedrun discord, and the tens of thousand of other people that speedrun. While constantly stating that these calculations are "biased towards me" and that they used numbers "favorable to me", they call things like that an "upper bound", when I would point out that it is nearly a "lower bound" because we at bare minimum 1000% know there are at least that many speedrunners.
As well as addressing the things above in the video, I also do have to address the harassment from the mods and verifiers that I received throughout the investigation. Although not important to the statistics, it is very important to the conclusion, as statistics can be interpreted one way or another. It's also important to me, and definitely helps explain my less thought out more agitated responses. There's a lot that almost no one knows about that went on behind the scenes, and I'll definitely be talking about that. It's not me whining about bias when it's not there, there is genuine bias, but that doesn't invalidate the statistics.
Otherwise, for now, sit tight. You've heard one argument that took 60 days to prepare, from a group of volunteers. I'll try and make sure that my response touches on all the important things, but I will need time to put it together. Hope this clears my thought process up a little bit though.
submitted by dreamistaken to DreamWasTaken [link] [comments]
Dev Q&A Livestream Summary 2/4/2021
I tried to summarize the best I could, I did miss a couple things but they weren't super important. My bad if I misinterpreted anything
Random Points
- Midchapter is releasing next week + lunar event + archive
- Quality of life and game health changes usually come in midchapter releases
- There's not a lot of time between PTB coming out and gathering information and addressing feedback before it meets the deadlines. The PTB gives them the 3-4 weeks advance on fixes they wouldn't have been able to get otherwise.
- They've been looking at new approaches to the struggle mechanic that is engaging but also is an actual improvement in terms of the mechanical process (spamming space). There's active work being done on it but nothing concrete announced
- Can't promise that every killer is going to get new chase music but they do like giving killers music that fit them
- Custom perk sets are a common request and is planned, UI quality of life change list is long and this is on it. Not anytime soon but it's on the list. A notification when you complete an archive during a game is also on the list.
- New game modes are not planned.
- Elodie's scream is getting fixed. It is a bug.
- No daily ritual changes in the near future.
- New killer animations eventually, not all killers but stuff like hillbilly's animation problems will get fixed.
- The plan for an early game rework has since changed but is still being worked on, they'll talk about it later
- No concrete plan to reduce the game's grind but they're looking at it and trying to figure out a way to do it
- Blight's POV fix is not in midchapter but in the chapter following it.
- Legion's speed was never bugged just his POV during frenzy which has been fixed, the fix for his frenzy swing which is still bugged is coming in the hotfix after the midchapter
Balance:
- The next 3 killers getting adjusted are freddy, demo and huntress. Not able to say what changes, info coming later. Not complete overhauls but looking at them and adjusting numbers/addons, that kinda stuff.
- They say the pig is one of the better performing killers overall... and they like pig. That's all they said.
- Object of Obsession has a work in progress rework. "Whenever your aura is revealed to the killer, the killer's aura becomes revealed to you. If you are the obsession, your aura is revealed to the killer for 3 seconds once every 40/35/30 seconds. Increases the odds of being the obsession." Not final, welcoming feedback. They figured this proposed rework was a way to keep the "object of obsession" element without it being super annoying.
- Decisive Strike: Repairing a gen, healing, cleansing a totem, sabotaging a hook or unhooking others will now disable DS while it is active. They feel locker DS is fine. Coming in the new chapter, NOT this uncoming midchapter.
Switch/Cross Progression
- Team is aware of FPS drops on switch, they're working on it and similar things on all platforms are being worked on. They've been collecting data to understand what's going on, there's always optimizations coming though it is a gradual process.
- Switch cross-progression is set for early Q2 (April-June), nothing announced for other platforms yet
Maps:
- They're focusing on reworking existing content rather than creating new maps, don't expect any new swamp maps or other requested maps in the near future. They are going through all the maps. Arbitrary order. Not trying to drastically impact how the maps play.
- Haddonfield is getting the same graphical update as everything else, no dates or anything just "eventually".
UI:
- Ultrawide aspect ratio support is not an immediate plan, not saying it doesn't matter but not on the current road. Maybe.
- Hook counter UI for killers was done intentionally. They considered giving full info but they were concerned it would encourage tunneling too much. They want to leave it as part of the challenge/decision making process for the killer.
- HUD customization has been discussed internally since a lot of players are asking for it but it's not simple, so it's not planned in the near future but don't rule it out.
- UI hasn't changed much since PTB to release. After everyone has played with it they'll look at feedback and change accordingly.
Matchmaking/Skill Based MM:
- The biggest limiting factor to matchmaking is the right amount of players in queue. The ratio of survivors to killers fluctuates. At night time the number of killer players drop off and they have a surplus amount of survivors. Looking for ways to merge matchmaking pools together rather than separating them.
- Hesitant to explain every detail of how the new skill based matching / mmr will be calculated but basically the goal is to have it adapt to the way you play. It was initially based only off kills/escapes but they have continually added more parameters to have a better understanding to rate the skill of each player.
Keys/Moris:
- They know keys can be as equally as frustrating as moris. Key hatch escapes are rare (2-3% of games?). They see them as separate topics, they DO have a plan for keys and both systems are getting changes but it's still early in the process so they can't give more precise info. Key changes are bigger than mori changes.
GTA Online Mega Guide and Weekly Simple Question Thread
submitted by BryonyBot to gtaonline [link] [comments]
FUCKED UP SHIT
I guess I’m what you’d call an addict. Junkie, even. Alcohol? No, I don’t touch the stuff. I
drink it, hahaha. Don’t need hands to do that, hence the punchline. Drugs? I mean, I dabble. Recreationally. Whatever you got, if it’s free, I’ll shoot it up, lick it, smoke it, stick under my eyelid, snort it right into my aorta. And I’m not particularly picky either. Captain Cody, Skag, Mud, Fidgeridoo, Herbal Speedball, Organ Oil, Demmies, Miss Emma, Kickers, Mrs. O, Yog-Sothamines, XTC, Sneeze, R-Balls; if you have them, I’ll take them. Still not addicted to the stuff though.
No, my one and only addiction is exceedingly simple, yet intolerably hard to satisfy;
FUCKED UP SHIT. I’m not talking about your everyday dark web snuff mind you. I need the
real deal. Something about my brain's incapability to shoot me up with dopamine, oxytocin, serotonin and endorphins (the D.O.S.E), according to several online doctors. So it’s a medical thing. Still haven’t scored a prescription for it though.
In any case, my
medical condition forces me to deep dive into the fuckiest corners of society. You have your dark underground clubs, murder parties, subteranean sickofests, torture theatres, decapitation diners, and the odd organ orgies, but what I really enjoy, what makes my D.O.S.E overflow, is the ones you never hear about. The ones you have to
find. No invitations, no RSVPs. One day they just pop up like a popcorn baby, and before you know it, they’re gone.
I’ve been to a few of these over the years, and they
never disappoint. I already told you about the Baby Killer Incident, yeah? Then you know what I’m talking about.
Fucked up shit!
I happened upon this particular one by Chance.
Chance being this stripper I know that’s into some ritualistic cannibalism or other (I don’t ask), and long story short she knew the sicko who was hosting the event. I was hesitant at first, this particular sicko placing fairly high on my shitlist of sickos, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and all. Not to mention that my D.O.S.E-withdrawals were flaring up, making me in essence nothing more than a shivering sack of suicidal human tissue on the best of days.
So there I was in an abandoned mall, shivering sack of suicidal human tissue, idly accepting assorted drugs from random passer-by deviants taking a pity on me, when this guy comes up to me, all dressed up in a pink hazmat suit with a freaky unicorn horn (which, when I look back on it, was probably a massive drill-shaped dildo) stuck to his helmet, and he goes
Hey Tilly (that’s my name, Tilly),
Hey Tilly, he says.
I hear you like fucked up shit. Man, word gets around, I think to myself, but at the same time these loud fucking alarm bells starts going off in my head, accompanied by Soviet Union-amounts of red flags.
How the fuck do you know my name? I ask.
Your ears, he answers.
The guy told me to look for a man with fucked up ears. Well, you found’em, I say, making sure to twirl around all ballerina-like, highlighting my ugly-ass ear-stumps.
And what fucking guy gave you my name? That guy, he mumbles idly, not actually pointing to anyone.
Say, what happened to them? To who? Your, uh, ears. Oh, that, I say.
Sliced them off as a punchline in an elaborate Van Gogh-joke. Well, two seperate jokes, actually. Both Van Gogh-related though. The guy nods, maybe smiles, but I can’t really tell because of the dildo-helmet, and beckons for me to follow him. Now, I don’t normally follow strange men into bathrooms, but sometimes that’s exactly what you should do. I guess learning when to do it, and when
not to do it is an integral skill in this setting, but you’ll figure it out one way or another, so don’t worry too much about it.
Anyway, into the bathroom we go. Like the rest of the place it’s spotless, meaning there isn’t a single fucking spot that isn’t covered in grime or dirt or bodily fluids of some description, and I wrinkle my nose in disgust as the guy waves me into an empty stall at the far end of it.
I hesitate momentarily, my mind doing some olympic-levels of mental gymnastics to calculate the risk/reward-ratio of my current situation. I land on an even 50/50 - good enough - and I saunter into the stall, only to realise it’s not a bathroom stall at all.
Unexpected, I say, my D.O.S.E-levels elevating ever so slightly.
The guy starts descending the winding staircase leading god-knows-where, looking back at me when he notices I’m still just standing there sheepishly.
You coming or what? he asks.
Fuck no, I think to myself.
Yeah, I say.
Now, I’m no architect, but I’ll hazard a guess and propose that winding staircases are a rare find in your standard mall bathroom, abandoned or not.
This wasn’t always a mall, was it? I ask.
Good eye, the guy answers.
Used to be a church. I guess capitalism always wins, huh? I just nod, soon enough realising these fucking stairs are neverending, like one of those spirals you see in old movies, you know, when someone is getting hypnotised? Then I think back on this woman I met when I was young. Younger? Time man, it’s always going somewhere, and I never really bothered catching up to it. Anyway, I think back on this woman I bumped into on the street, and how she out of the blue asks me if I’d seen her job, and I was like
what the fuck do you mean? I’ve lost my job, she says.
It’s always in the last place you look, I note.
That’s really helpful, she says unironically.
Say, could you help me with something else? What? Do you know, she starts.
Do you know how to rewind a winding staircase? I don’t know man, that shit always stuck with me. Some kind of riddle? An elaborate joke? A covert Operation Mindfuck? Escaped lunatic lingo? In any case, that’s how I felt when we descended those stairs. Like I was rewinding a winding staircase.
Here we are then, the guy suddenly exclaims, bringing me out of my temporal trip down memory lane.
I am wildly underwhelmed at this point, but after letting my eyes get used to the dimly lit basement chamber, I can feel my brain starting to upchuck some good fucking shit into my system.
Champagne? the guy asks, beckoning to a rather unbecoming rat-faced girl in the corner to come hither with a tray of alcoholic beverages.
Don’t mind if I’m already two steps ahead of you, I think, having snatched a bottle I found sitting by the stairs. I pop it open, and enjoy the weird expressions on their faces as I chug the whole fucking thing in a manner of seconds. Tastes like an aging puke-shit hybrid, but my think-organ seems to enjoy it, and I’m not one to start a fight with my own fucking brain.
I watch the two of them trade looks of confusion, realisation, and then something I (falsely) identify as fear, then turn my attention to the tied up naked man at the far end of the room. I think I forgot to mention him, but he was there too. In fact, he was the sole reason my D.O.S.E was elevating - the prospect of some kind of fucked up torture show enough to get my juices flowing.
Now what? the girl asks.
Do we tell him? Fuck it, the guy says, and then proceeds to bash half of my skull in with a crowbar.
You know the part in every fucking action movie where the main character knocks some poor unnamed henchman unconscious? Do you realise how fucking dangerous that is? Concussions are silent killers man. Could’ve inflicted some serious brain damage too. Those fuckers can fuck you up for life.
Anyway, I guess I must’ve been out for a few, because when I woke up, I found myself dangling from the ceiling, my body suspended mid-air by some rather sturdy-looking chains.
You fucked up royally this time Tilly, the dildo-helmet proposed.
If my jaw hadn’t felt like someone had ripped it out, then jammed it back in the wrong way around, I probably would have responded with a witty remark. As circumstances were though, I felt forced to reply with a half-hearted
Guh? Let’s show you exactly how much you fucked up, the guy says.
My mind slips in and out of what I assume is consciousness, but it’s like my thoughts are torn in half; one side continuously trying to make sense of what I’m seeing, and the other rapidly filling with nausea-inducing dread. Both are fucking screaming though, my stump-ears somehow hearing the inside of my mind lamenting as it drowns slowly in an all-consuming madness.
The naked man screams too, but he’s more physical about it. How can a supposedly regular set of lungs contain that much air, I find myself thinking. His skin is a deep shade of red, some of it undoubtedly caused by lack of oxygen, some of it by the ever-growing stream of blood ceaselessly dripping down from his soon-to-be empty eye-socket.
Pull it Ems! the guy yells.
The rat-faced girl, Ems, has this horrid fucking grin on her face. You know how an old lemon looks, like a really shrivelled up piece of lemon? All wrinkles and browning leathery texture? That was her face. All fucking rotting wrinkled lemon texture smiles.
Pull it! Ems got the naked man’s eye firmly gripped between her thumb and index, long dirty fingernails digging into the spongy vitreous, having now pulled it about an inch or so outside of the poor fucker’s socket. And I can just tell by her posture that she’s readying herself for that final, horrible yank.
I want to close my eyes so badly at this point, you know, just fucking succumb to the madness my brain is desperately conjuring up to save me, but at the same time I can’t. I physically cannot get my eyelids to work. I don’t know why, but that fucking fact freaks me out more than anything else going on.
And then it happens. With a swift, overly dramatic motion, she rips the fucking eye all the way out, and the man’s tormented shrieks reaches sonic levels that transcends human hearing. My ears are ringing, my mind is swirling, and my eyes are itching.
Watch this Tilly, the guy says coldly.
Watch this fucking shit real closely. And I do. Barely conscious at this point, hanging onto sanity only by fucking ignoring reality as a concept, I watch as Ems drops the severed eye to the dirty grime-covered floor, the disgusting fucking thing still somehow connected to the man via the optical nerves - impossibly long squirming crimson tendrils.
What the fuck? I mumble.
I told you, the guy chuckles.
I fucking told you. It’s hard to say how many there were. Countless maybe. Countless and then some, probably. Thin crimson worms, entangled in each other, organically interwoven to form a disgusting chain from the naked man’s empty eye socket to the severed eye on the floor. I could see them slithering in perfect repulsive unison, and suddenly the eye starts...moving.
This is the best part, the guy says.
The squirming chain slowly starts retracting, the blue of the eye turning a savory shade of grime-grey as it is dragged across the floor, up the naked man's legs, stomach, neck, face, until finally, after what seems like an eternity, it pops right back into the socket with a repulsive
gloooph.
My stomach wants me to vomit now, but it’s barren and dry and empty and sour, so instead my brain takes control, a tempting blank void all the way in the back of my mind presented as a possible solution. But they won’t let me go. Ems erupts in a maniacal laughter, like the sound of a chainsaw on rough concrete, and the guy soon follows. I feel the muscles in my back contracting all seizure-like; more than likely my body’s last desperate attempt at shutting me down.
The naked man has stopped screaming now, the tortured wails replaced by a deep gargle, slime and blood mixed together in the back of his throat. Maybe his nightmare will end, I think, but then I realise it won’t. It hasn’t. It’s still going.
The eye is still moving.
Being dragged now
inside his skull, I see the spongy texture of it bending and morphing hideously as it squeezes past bone structures that are by far too fucking narrow, and then it disappears completely, accompanied by a soundscape of
gloophs and
schlucks.
The man topples over, still tied to the chair, and convulses in agony for minutes, until it all suddenly stops.
I have never experienced such silence. That’s how I imagine space, you know. A great old big fucking vast empty nothingness of all the senses.
And now, the guy says, standing over the corpse of the naked man.
Now it is your turn. Ems hideous face morphs into that smile again. Big old lemon wrinkled smile. I remember her crooked yellow fingernails so vividly, horrid jagged things inching closer and closer to my eye, until I could feel them scraping on my exposed pupil.
I guess my mind found a way out right then. Fucking took it long enough though, but I figure I must have passed out, maybe from the pain, maybe from the fear, maybe from the exhaustion. Most likely neither of those, though.
When I woke up, I was alone, face down in my own sour-dry vomit on the ground. No naked corpse man, no dildo-helmet guy, no lemon-smiled Ems. I spent a good fifteen minutes checking my eyes, trembling fingers tracing them, you know, just to see if they were still there. And they were. They were fucking solid. They were fucking perfect.
I guess I spent a few weeks or so recuperating from that shit, but I’ve never felt quite the same. Turns out there’s a reason for that.
It’s weird you know, how I didn’t realise it sooner. I might be a fucked up piece of shit, but I’m no dummy. Gotta hand it to them though, it was a clever way to do it. Offering you a drink. I guess that’s how they got it in the naked man too. I suppose that’s why they told me
I fucked up. Took too much, as the saying goes. Chugged the whole infestation.
I cut myself shaving this morning. Just a tiny nick, you know. But where you’d expect blood, there was none. Instead I was greeted with the unseemly sight of a thin crimson worm, dangling restlessly by my nose.
Now if that’s not some FUCKED UP SHIT, I don’t know
what is. TCC 2 way odds calculator video
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